Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Player | Team | G | A | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies | TOR | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Dylan Larkin | DET | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Calle Jarnkrok | TOR | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Mason Appleton | DET | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| James van Riemsdyk | DET | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Auston Matthews | TOR | 0 | 1 | 8 |
| Goalie | Team | SA | SV | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot | DET | 40 | 38 | .950 |
| Anthony Stolarz | TOR | 15 | 12 | .800 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was DET 35%, TOR 65% · Updated Oct 13, 2025
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshi | Polymarket US | ProphetX | Novig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| DETDetroit Red Wings | +19035% | — | — | — | — |
| TORToronto Maple Leafs | −19065% | — | — | — | — |
| SpreadTOR by 0.9 | |||||
| DETDetroit Red Wings | +0.9our margin | — | — | — | — |
| TORToronto Maple Leafs | −0.9our margin | — | — | — | — |
| Totalwe expect 6.3 | |||||
| Over | 6.3our total | — | — | — | — |
| Under | 6.3our total | — | — | — | — |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Toronto Maple Leafs by 0.9 expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.
Total range
6.3 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.
Starting Goalies
from the box scoreStarting goalies are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.