bayesRatings

Senators at Sabres

NHL · Wednesday, Oct 15 · 6:00 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final OTT 4 – BUF 8
← NHL / Oct 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
OTT1124
BUF1438
Team box
OTT·BUF
37
shots
27
1 of 5
power play
3 of 3
64.9
faceoff %
35.1
21
hits
29
10
blocked shots
20
10
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Zach BensonBUF042
Josh DoanBUF033
Jordan SpenceOTT032
Ryan McLeodBUF205
Jason ZuckerBUF203
Jack QuinnBUF203
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Leevi MerilainenOTT2619.731
Alex LyonBUF3733.892

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +4
OTT +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: BUF 4 · OTT 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OTT 48%, BUF 52% · Updated Oct 15, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.3 – 3.2 OTT
Expected total
6.5
SenatorsThe matchupSabres
+108Our fair odds−108
3.2Expected goals3.3
+0.01Power rating−0.15
2.7Goals / game0.7
4.7Allowed / game3.3
31.3Shots / game29.0
64.4Faceoff %41.6
31.0Hits / game22.3
1−2Season record0−3
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · BUF chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+10848%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−10852%————
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa Senators+0.1our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 20%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 21%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 10%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 12%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 6%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 2%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: <1%
← OTT wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more31%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more21%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
OTTLeevi Merilainen G · last 5 starts: .946 save %, 1.38 GAAstarted
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .913 save %, 2.61 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·BUF
Oct 13, 2025 vs NSH
last game
Oct 13, 2025 vs COL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
OTT·BUF
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
2.7
goals / game
0.7
4.7
goals allowed / game
3.3
1−2
season record
0−3
0−1
home record
0−2
1−1
away record
0−1
L2
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
31.3
shots / game
29.0
64.4
faceoff %
41.6
31.0
hits / game
22.3
14.0
blocked shots / game
13.0
6.0
takeaways / game
3.7
17.7
giveaways / game
18.3

Rating Trend

OTT · BUF · 2 days
Ottawa SenatorsBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 7−3
Apr 1, 2025at OTTBUF 5 − 2
Mar 25, 2025at BUFBUF 3 − 2
Jan 9, 2025at OTTBUF 4 − 0
Nov 5, 2024at BUFBUF 5 − 1
Mar 27, 2024at BUFOTT 6 − 2
Jan 11, 2024at BUFBUF 5 − 3
Dec 31, 2023at OTTOTT 5 − 1
Oct 24, 2023at OTTBUF 6 − 4
Apr 13, 2023at BUFBUF 4 − 3 OT
Jan 1, 2023at OTTOTT 3 − 1

OTT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 13, 2025vs NSH1 − 4L
Oct 11, 2025at FLA2 − 6L
Oct 9, 2025at TB5 − 4W
May 1, 2025vs TOR2 − 4L
Apr 29, 2025at TOR4 − 0W
Apr 26, 2025vs TOR4 − 3W
Apr 24, 2025vs TOR2 − 3L
Apr 22, 2025at TOR2 − 3L
Apr 20, 2025at TOR2 − 6L
Apr 17, 2025vs CAR7 − 5W

BUF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 13, 2025vs COL1 − 3L
Oct 11, 2025at BOS1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs NYR0 − 4L
Apr 17, 2025vs PHI5 − 4W
Apr 15, 2025vs TOR0 − 4L
Apr 13, 2025at TB4 − 7L
Apr 12, 2025at FLA2 − 3L
Apr 10, 2025at CBJ2 − 3L
Apr 8, 2025vs CAR3 − 0W
Apr 6, 2025vs BOS6 − 3W