bayesRatings

Canucks at Blackhawks

NHL · Friday, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM CT · United Center · Final VAN 3 – CHI 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
VAN020013
CHI200002
Team box
VAN·CHI
32
shots
33
1 of 6
power play
1 of 3
41.8
faceoff %
58.2
26
hits
19
10
blocked shots
10
8
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jake DeBruskVAN1010
Tyler BertuzziCHI106
Ryan DonatoCHI103
Max SassonVAN101
Conor GarlandVAN013
Quinn HughesVAN013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Kevin LankinenVAN3331.939
Spencer KnightCHI3230.938

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CHI 2 · VAN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 56%, CHI 44% · Updated Oct 17, 2025

Expected margin
VAN by 0.7
Expected score
VAN 3.4 – 2.7 CHI
Expected total
6.1
CanucksThe matchupBlackhawks
−129Our fair odds+129
3.4Expected goals2.7
−0.03Power rating−0.53
3.2Goals / game3.6
3.0Allowed / game2.8
24.0Shots / game21.6
45.7Faceoff %44.5
27.0Hits / game20.8
2−2Season record2−3
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · CHI chance
Our model fair56.3%43.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks−12956%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+12944%————
SpreadVAN by 0.7
VANVancouver Canucks−0.7our margin————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Vancouver Canucks by 0.7 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 15%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 12%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 17%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 24%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 7%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 7%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 3%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%
← VAN wins byCHI wins by →
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more41%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .923 save %, 2.57 GAAstarted
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .916 save %, 2.76 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·CHI
Oct 16, 2025 at DAL
last game
Oct 15, 2025 at STL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
VAN·CHI
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.53
3.2
goals / game
3.6
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.8
2−2
season record
2−3
1−1
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
1−2
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
24.0
shots / game
21.6
45.7
faceoff %
44.5
27.0
hits / game
20.8
16.0
blocked shots / game
12.2
4.2
takeaways / game
6.4
18.5
giveaways / game
17.6

Rating Trend

VAN · CHI · 4 days
Vancouver CanucksChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 0−10
Mar 15, 2025at VANVAN 6 − 2
Nov 16, 2024at VANVAN 4 − 1
Oct 22, 2024at CHIVAN 6 − 3
Feb 13, 2024at CHIVAN 4 − 2
Jan 22, 2024at VANVAN 2 − 0
Dec 17, 2023at CHIVAN 4 − 3
Apr 6, 2023at VANVAN 3 − 0
Mar 26, 2023at CHIVAN 4 − 2
Jan 24, 2023at VANVAN 5 − 2
Jan 31, 2022at CHIVAN 3 − 1

VAN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 16, 2025at DAL5 − 3W
Oct 13, 2025vs STL2 − 5L
Oct 11, 2025at EDM1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs CGY5 − 1W
Apr 16, 2025vs VGK1 − 4L
Apr 14, 2025vs SJ2 − 1W
Apr 12, 2025vs MIN2 − 3L
Apr 10, 2025at COL4 − 1W
Apr 8, 2025at DAL6 − 5W
Apr 6, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 15, 2025at STL8 − 3W
Oct 13, 2025vs UTAH3 − 1W
Oct 11, 2025vs MTL2 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025at BOS3 − 4L
Oct 7, 2025at FLA2 − 3L
Apr 15, 2025at OTT4 − 3W
Apr 14, 2025at MTL4 − 3W
Apr 12, 2025vs WPG4 − 5L
Apr 10, 2025at BOS5 − 2W
Apr 8, 2025at PIT0 − 5L