bayesRatings

Maple Leafs at Capitals

NHL · Friday, Nov 28 · 4:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final TOR 2 – WSH 4
← NHL / Nov 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TOR1102
WSH0134
Team box
TOR·WSH
22
shots
34
0 of 0
power play
0 of 2
59.3
faceoff %
40.7
28
hits
17
14
blocked shots
12
4
penalty minutes
0
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Connor McMichaelWSH115
Tom WilsonWSH112
Anthony BeauvillierWSH104
Jakob ChychrunWSH104
Matthew KniesTOR103
Morgan RiellyTOR102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joseph WollTOR3330.909
Logan ThompsonWSH2220.909

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
TOR +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 2 · TOR 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 41%, WSH 59% · Updated Nov 28, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 0.7
Expected score
WSH 3.6 – 2.9 TOR
Expected total
6.4
Maple LeafsThe matchupCapitals
+144Our fair odds−144
2.9Expected goals3.6
+0.03Power rating+0.17
3.3Goals / game3.3
3.6Allowed / game2.8
27.6Shots / game30.0
56.3Faceoff %48.0
24.2Hits / game20.5
10−13Season record13−11
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · WSH chance
Our model fair41.0%59.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Maple Leafs+14441%————
WSHWashington Capitals−14459%————
SpreadWSH by 0.7
TORToronto Maple Leafs+0.7our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Capitals by 0.7 expected
Toronto Maple Leafs by 7 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 3%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 8%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 7%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 21%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 19%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 15%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 9%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 3%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 7 goals: <1%
← TOR wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more40%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more29%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TORJoseph Woll G · last 5 starts: .921 save %, 2.74 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .908 save %, 2.56 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·WSH
Nov 26, 2025 at CBJ
last game
Nov 26, 2025 vs WPG
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
TOR·WSH
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
3.3
goals / game
3.3
3.6
goals allowed / game
2.8
10−13
season record
13−11
8−7
home record
8−6
2−6
away record
5−5
W1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
27.6
shots / game
30.0
56.3
faceoff %
48.0
24.2
hits / game
20.5
15.5
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.3
takeaways / game
5.0
17.4
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

TOR · WSH · 45 days
Toronto Maple LeafsWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Dec 28, 2024at TORWSH 5 − 2
Dec 6, 2024at TORWSH 3 − 1
Nov 13, 2024at WSHTOR 4 − 3 OT
Mar 28, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 1
Mar 20, 2024at WSHTOR 7 − 3
Oct 24, 2023at WSHTOR 4 − 1
Jan 29, 2023at TORTOR 5 − 1
Dec 17, 2022at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Oct 13, 2022at TORTOR 3 − 2
Apr 24, 2022at WSHTOR 4 − 3 SO

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Nov 26, 2025at CBJ2 − 1W
Nov 22, 2025at MTL2 − 5L
Nov 20, 2025vs CBJ2 − 3L
Nov 18, 2025vs STL3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at CHI2 − 3L
Nov 13, 2025vs LA3 − 4L
Nov 11, 2025at BOS3 − 5L
Nov 9, 2025vs CAR4 − 5L
Nov 8, 2025vs BOS3 − 5L
Nov 5, 2025vs UTAH5 − 3W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 26, 2025vs WPG4 − 3W
Nov 24, 2025vs CBJ5 − 1W
Nov 22, 2025vs TB3 − 5L
Nov 20, 2025at MTL8 − 4W
Nov 19, 2025vs EDM7 − 4W
Nov 17, 2025vs LA2 − 1W
Nov 15, 2025vs NJ2 − 3L
Nov 13, 2025at FLA3 − 6L
Nov 11, 2025at CAR4 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at TB2 − 3L