bayesRatings

Flyers at Sabres

NHL · Thursday, Dec 18 · 6:30 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final PHI 3 – BUF 5
← NHL / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PHI1113
BUF1225
Team box
PHI·BUF
27
shots
28
0 of 3
power play
1 of 5
53.6
faceoff %
46.4
29
hits
24
10
blocked shots
15
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Zach BensonBUF024
Mattias SamuelssonBUF021
Bobby BrinkPHI021
Travis KonecnyPHI104
Tage ThompsonBUF102
Josh NorrisBUF102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Samuel ErssonPHI2723.852
Alex LyonBUF2724.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +3
PHI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BUF 2 · PHI 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 46%, BUF 54% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.5 – 3.2 PHI
Expected total
6.8
FlyersThe matchupSabres
+119Our fair odds−119
3.2Expected goals3.5
−0.12Power rating−0.11
3.0Goals / game3.1
2.8Allowed / game3.4
24.8Shots / game28.3
49.3Faceoff %43.8
21.9Hits / game18.9
17−15Season record14−18
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BUF chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+11946%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−11954%————
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.3our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.8
Over6.8our total————
Under6.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 2%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 5%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 10%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 9%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 20%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 20%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 10%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 13%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 7%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%
← PHI wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more34%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more24%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.8 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 6.554%
Total over 7.535%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PHISamuel Ersson G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 2.54 GAAstarted
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 3.21 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BUF
Dec 16, 2025 at MTL
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at SEA
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
PHI·BUF
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
3.0
goals / game
3.1
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.4
17−15
season record
14−18
10−9
home record
9−7
7−6
away record
5−11
W1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
5−5
24.8
shots / game
28.3
49.3
faceoff %
43.8
21.9
hits / game
18.9
14.9
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.4
takeaways / game
5.1
15.0
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

PHI · BUF · 65 days
Philadelphia FlyersBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 4−6
Dec 3, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 2
Apr 17, 2025at BUFBUF 5 − 4
Mar 29, 2025at PHIPHI 7 − 4
Nov 16, 2024at PHIPHI 5 − 2
Apr 5, 2024at BUFBUF 4 − 2
Nov 3, 2023at BUFPHI 5 − 1
Nov 1, 2023at PHIBUF 5 − 2
Apr 1, 2023at PHIBUF 6 − 3
Mar 17, 2023at PHIPHI 5 − 2
Jan 9, 2023at BUFPHI 4 − 0

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 16, 2025at MTL4 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025at CAR2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs CAR3 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 9, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W
Dec 7, 2025vs COL2 − 3L
Dec 3, 2025vs BUF5 − 2W
Dec 1, 2025vs PIT1 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025at NJ5 − 3W
Nov 28, 2025at NYI4 − 3W

BUF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Dec 14, 2025at SEA3 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025at VAN3 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at EDM4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at CGY4 − 7L
Dec 5, 2025at WPG1 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Dec 1, 2025vs WPG5 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025at MIN3 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025vs NJ0 − 5L
Nov 26, 2025at PIT2 − 4L