bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Dodgers

MLB · Friday, Mar 27 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final ARI 4 – LAD 5
← MLB / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI011200000481
LAD00400001540
Team box
ARI·LAD
8
hits
4
1
home runs
2
4
walks
3
12
strikeouts
5
125
pitches thrown
185
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mookie BettsLAD1-4113
Alek ThomasARI2-3003
Ketel MarteARI2-5111
Alex FreelandLAD2-3211
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4100
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryne NelsonARI4.22434
Kevin Ginkel (L)ARI1.02100
Emmet SheehanLAD3.15426
Edgardo Henriquez (W)LAD1.00001
Edwin Diaz (S)LAD1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · ARI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 42%, LAD 58% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 4.3 ARI
Expected total
9.7
DiamondbacksThe matchupDodgers
+138Our fair odds−138
4.3Expected runs5.3
+0.01Power rating+0.25
2.0Runs / game8.0
8.0Allowed / game2.0
6.0Hits / game10.0
1.00Home runs / game2.00
0.0Walks drawn / game5.0
0−1Season record1−0
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · LAD chance
Our model fair42.0%58.0%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13842%+19833.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13858%−23970.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 14 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 0.60 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·LAD
Mar 26 at LAD
last game
Mar 26 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
ARI·LAD
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
2.0
runs / game
8.0
8.0
runs allowed / game
2.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
7−3
6.0
hits / game
10.0
1.00
home runs / game
2.00
0.0
walks drawn / game
5.0
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
4.0
4.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

ARI · LAD · 2 days
Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Mar 26at LADLAD 8 − 2
Sep 25, 2025at ARILAD 8 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at ARILAD 5 − 4
Sep 23, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 4
Aug 30, 2025at LADARI 6 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at LADARI 3 − 0
May 21, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
May 20, 2025at LADLAD 4 − 3
May 19, 2025at LADARI 9 − 5

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Mar 26at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 28, 2025at SD4 − 12L
Sep 27, 2025at SD1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at SD4 − 7L
Sep 25, 2025vs LAD0 − 8L
Sep 24, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Sep 23, 2025vs LAD5 − 4W
Sep 21, 2025vs PHI9 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025vs PHI4 − 3W
Sep 19, 2025vs PHI2 − 8L

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 26vs ARI8 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 31, 2025at TOR3 − 1W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR1 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs TOR2 − 6L
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR6 − 5W
Oct 25, 2025at TOR5 − 1W
Oct 24, 2025at TOR4 − 11L
Oct 17, 2025vs MIL5 − 1W
Oct 16, 2025vs MIL3 − 1W