bayesRatings

Athletics at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, Mar 27 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final ATH 2 – TOR 3
← MLB / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000100001230
TOR000020001370
Team box
ATH·TOR
3
hits
7
2
home runs
0
2
walks
4
16
strikeouts
3
131
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shea LangeliersATH3-4222
Andres GimenezTOR2-3003
Ernie ClementTOR2-4100
Kazuma OkamotoTOR2-3200
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis SeverinoATH5.03233
Justin Sterner (L)ATH0.23100
Kevin GausmanTOR6.011011
Jeff Hoffman (W)TOR1.01104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 1 · ATH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 43%, TOR 57% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
TOR by 1.0
Expected score
TOR 5.3 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
9.7
AthleticsThe matchupBlue Jays
+135Our fair odds−135
4.3Expected runs5.3
−0.06Power rating+0.16
0−0Season record0−0
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · TOR chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshi41.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+13543%+14041.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−13557%−17563.6%———
SpreadTOR by 1.0
ATHAthletics+1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.0 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more45%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more35%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHLuis Severino SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·TOR
Sep 28, 2025 vs KC
last game
Nov 1, 2025 vs LAD
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
ATH·TOR
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
5−5
last 10
5−5

Rating Trend

ATH · TOR · 2 days
AthleticsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Jul 13, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 3
Jul 12, 2025at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at ATHTOR 7 − 6
Jun 1, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 4
May 31, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 7
May 30, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 7
May 29, 2025at TORTOR 12 − 0
Aug 11, 2024at TORATH 8 − 4
Aug 10, 2024at TORATH 1 − 0
Aug 9, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 1

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 28, 2025vs KC2 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025vs KC2 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025vs KC4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs HOU5 − 11L
Sep 24, 2025vs HOU6 − 0W
Sep 23, 2025vs HOU5 − 1W
Sep 21, 2025at PIT0 − 11L
Sep 20, 2025at PIT0 − 2L
Sep 19, 2025at PIT4 − 3W
Sep 18, 2025at BOS5 − 3W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 1, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAD1 − 3L
Oct 29, 2025at LAD6 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at LAD6 − 2W
Oct 27, 2025at LAD5 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 24, 2025vs LAD11 − 4W
Oct 20, 2025vs SEA4 − 3W
Oct 19, 2025vs SEA6 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025at SEA2 − 6L