bayesRatings

Yankees at Giants

MLB · Friday, Mar 27 · 3:35 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final NYY 3 – SF 0
← MLB / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000003000380
SF000000000010
Team box
NYY·SF
8
hits
1
2
home runs
0
3
walks
2
7
strikeouts
13
121
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Giancarlo StantonNYY2-4111
Aaron JudgeNYY1-4112
Jose CaballeroNYY2-4000
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-5100
Cody BellingerNYY1-3000
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam Schlittler (W)NYY5.11008
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00010
Robbie Ray (L)SF5.15204

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · NYY 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, SF 46% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 4.1 SF
Expected total
9.1
YankeesThe matchupGiants
−117Our fair odds+117
5.0Expected runs4.1
+0.23Power rating−0.01
7.0Runs / game0.0
0.0Allowed / game7.0
10.0Hits / game3.0
0.00Home runs / game0.00
3.0Walks drawn / game2.0
1−0Season record0−1
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · SF chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11754%−13757.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11746%+10947.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins bySF wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 21.1 IP, 0.84 ERA, 23 Kstarted
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·SF
Mar 25 at SF
last game
Mar 25 vs NYY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
NYY·SF
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
7.0
runs / game
0.0
0.0
runs allowed / game
7.0
1−0
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
10.0
hits / game
3.0
0.00
home runs / game
0.00
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.0
12.0
batter strikeouts / game
6.0
6.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
12.0
1.00
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

NYY · SF · 2 days
New York YankeesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Mar 25at SFNYY 7 − 0
Apr 13, 2025at NYYSF 5 − 4
Apr 12, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 4
Apr 11, 2025at NYYSF 9 − 1
Jun 2, 2024at SFNYY 7 − 5
Jun 1, 2024at SFNYY 7 − 3
May 31, 2024at SFNYY 6 − 2
Apr 2, 2023at NYYNYY 6 − 0
Apr 1, 2023at NYYSF 7 − 5
Mar 30, 2023at NYYNYY 5 − 0

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 25at SF7 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs TOR2 − 5L
Oct 7, 2025vs TOR9 − 6W
Oct 5, 2025at TOR7 − 13L
Oct 4, 2025at TOR1 − 10L
Oct 2, 2025vs BOS4 − 0W
Oct 1, 2025vs BOS4 − 3W
Sep 30, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL3 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025vs BAL6 − 1W

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Sep 26, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Sep 24, 2025vs STL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025vs STL8 − 9L
Sep 22, 2025vs STL5 − 6L
Sep 21, 2025at LAD3 − 1W
Sep 20, 2025at LAD5 − 7L
Sep 19, 2025at LAD3 − 6L