bayesRatings

Athletics at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final ATH 7 – TOR 8
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
ATH00000150010780
TOR001001121118140
Team box
ATH·TOR
8
hits
14
1
home runs
1
5
walks
8
19
strikeouts
7
184
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shea LangeliersATH2-4114
Andres GimenezTOR4-5001
Alejandro KirkTOR1-5211
Tyler SoderstromATH2-5001
Daulton VarshoTOR2-4101
Ernie ClementTOR2-6001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jeffrey SpringsATH5.15232
Luis Medina (L)ATH0.11011
Dylan CeaseTOR5.131212
Spencer Miles (W)TOR1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
ATH +4
1234567891011
largest lead: TOR 1 · ATH 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 42%, TOR 58% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
TOR by 1.0
Expected score
TOR 5.3 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
9.6
AthleticsThe matchupBlue Jays
+137Our fair odds−137
4.3Expected runs5.3
−0.07Power rating+0.17
2.0Runs / game3.0
3.0Allowed / game2.0
3.0Hits / game7.0
2.00Home runs / game0.00
2.0Walks drawn / game4.0
0−1Season record1−0
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · TOR chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+13742%+16637.6%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−13758%−19966.6%———
SpreadTOR by 1.0
ATHAthletics+1our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 1.0 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more45%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more35%
Athletics wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·TOR
Mar 27 at TOR
last game
Mar 27 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
ATH·TOR
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
2.0
runs / game
3.0
3.0
runs allowed / game
2.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
3.0
hits / game
7.0
2.00
home runs / game
0.00
2.0
walks drawn / game
4.0
16.0
batter strikeouts / game
3.0
3.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
16.0
0.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

ATH · TOR · 3 days
AthleticsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Mar 27at TORTOR 3 − 2
Jul 13, 2025at ATHATH 6 − 3
Jul 12, 2025at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jul 11, 2025at ATHTOR 7 − 6
Jun 1, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 4
May 31, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 7
May 30, 2025at TORTOR 11 − 7
May 29, 2025at TORTOR 12 − 0
Aug 11, 2024at TORATH 8 − 4
Aug 10, 2024at TORATH 1 − 0

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Mar 27at TOR2 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs KC2 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025vs KC2 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025vs KC4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs HOU5 − 11L
Sep 24, 2025vs HOU6 − 0W
Sep 23, 2025vs HOU5 − 1W
Sep 21, 2025at PIT0 − 11L
Sep 20, 2025at PIT0 − 2L
Sep 19, 2025at PIT4 − 3W

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 27vs ATH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAD1 − 3L
Oct 29, 2025at LAD6 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at LAD6 − 2W
Oct 27, 2025at LAD5 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 24, 2025vs LAD11 − 4W
Oct 20, 2025vs SEA4 − 3W
Oct 19, 2025vs SEA6 − 2W