bayesRatings

Red Sox at Reds

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 3:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final BOS 5 – CIN 6
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
BOS00120010100581
CIN211010000016100
Team box
BOS·CIN
8
hits
10
2
home runs
2
5
walks
7
15
strikeouts
12
198
pitches thrown
185
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-5112
Sal StewartCIN2-4112
Matt McLainCIN3-4101
Trevor StoryBOS1-6111
Elly De La CruzCIN1-4111
Carlos NarvaezBOS2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny GrayBOS4.06315
Justin Slaten (L)BOS0.11011
Brady SingerCIN4.05325
Connor Phillips (W)CIN2.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
BOS +3
1234567891011
largest lead: CIN 3 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 51%, CIN 49% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
Expected total
8.5
Red SoxThe matchupReds
−104Our fair odds+104
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.14Power rating+0.02
3.0Runs / game0.0
0.0Allowed / game3.0
12.0Hits / game4.0
0.00Home runs / game0.00
3.0Walks drawn / game3.0
1−0Season record0−1
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.9%49.1%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−10451%−13156.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10449%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byCIN wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 22 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CIN
Mar 26 at CIN
last game
Mar 26 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
BOS·CIN
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.0
runs / game
0.0
0.0
runs allowed / game
3.0
1−0
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
12.0
hits / game
4.0
0.00
home runs / game
0.00
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
12.0
12.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
1.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

BOS · CIN · 3 days
Boston Red SoxCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Mar 26at CINBOS 3 − 0
Jul 2, 2025at BOSCIN 8 − 4
Jul 1, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 3
Jun 30, 2025at BOSBOS 13 − 6
Jun 23, 2024at CINBOS 7 − 4
Jun 22, 2024at CINBOS 4 − 3
Jun 21, 2024at CINCIN 5 − 2
Jun 1, 2023at BOSBOS 8 − 2
May 31, 2023at BOSCIN 5 − 4
May 30, 2023at BOSCIN 9 − 8

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 26at CIN3 − 0W
Oct 2, 2025at NYY0 − 4L
Oct 1, 2025at NYY3 − 4L
Sep 30, 2025at NYY3 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 27, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Sep 26, 2025vs DET4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at TOR1 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at TOR7 − 1W
Sep 23, 2025at TOR4 − 1W

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Mar 26vs BOS0 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at LAD4 − 8L
Sep 30, 2025at LAD5 − 10L
Sep 28, 2025at MIL2 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIL7 − 4W
Sep 26, 2025at MIL3 − 1W
Sep 25, 2025vs PIT2 − 1W
Sep 24, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025vs PIT2 − 4L
Sep 21, 2025vs CHC1 − 0W