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White Sox at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CHW 1 – MIL 6
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW000100000171
MIL310001106120
Team box
CHW·MIL
7
hits
12
1
home runs
0
4
walks
5
11
strikeouts
9
179
pitches thrown
156
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian YelichMIL3-5101
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4102
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-3111
Brice TurangMIL3-5200
Joey OrtizMIL2-4001
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Burke (L)CHW4.07315
Chad PatrickMIL4.15114
Aaron Ashby (W)MIL1.20024

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: MIL 5 · CHW 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 35%, MIL 65% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
MIL by 2.0
Expected score
MIL 5.2 – 3.2 CHW
Expected total
8.4
White SoxThe matchupBrewers
+188Our fair odds−188
3.2Expected runs5.2
−0.30Power rating+0.25
2.0Runs / game14.0
14.0Allowed / game2.0
4.0Hits / game12.0
2.00Home runs / game2.00
5.0Walks drawn / game10.0
0−1Season record1−0
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · MIL chance
Our model fair34.8%65.2%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+18835%+16637.6%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−18865%−19966.6%———
SpreadMIL by 2.0
CHWChicago White Sox+2our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 2.0 expected
Chicago White Sox by 16 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 15 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more54%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more42%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 5.25 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MILChad Patrick RP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·MIL
Mar 26 at MIL
last game
Mar 26 vs CHW
1 day
days of rest
1 day
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
CHW·MIL
−0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
2.0
runs / game
14.0
14.0
runs allowed / game
2.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
4.0
hits / game
12.0
2.00
home runs / game
2.00
5.0
walks drawn / game
10.0
20.0
batter strikeouts / game
3.0
3.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
20.0
1.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

CHW · MIL · 3 days
Chicago White SoxMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 9−1
Mar 26at MILMIL 14 − 2
May 1, 2025at CHWCHW 8 − 0
Apr 30, 2025at CHWMIL 6 − 4
Apr 29, 2025at CHWMIL 7 − 2
Jun 2, 2024at MILMIL 6 − 3
Jun 1, 2024at MILMIL 4 − 3
May 31, 2024at MILMIL 12 − 5
Aug 13, 2023at CHWMIL 7 − 3
Aug 12, 2023at CHWMIL 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2023at CHWMIL 7 − 6

CHW · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Mar 26at MIL2 − 14L
Sep 28, 2025at WSH8 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025at WSH10 − 9W
Sep 25, 2025at NYY3 − 5L
Sep 24, 2025at NYY1 − 8L
Sep 23, 2025at NYY2 − 3L
Sep 21, 2025vs SD2 − 3L
Sep 20, 2025vs SD3 − 7L
Sep 19, 2025vs SD4 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 26vs CHW14 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025at LAD1 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025at LAD1 − 3L
Oct 14, 2025vs LAD1 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs LAD1 − 2L
Oct 11, 2025vs CHC3 − 1W
Oct 9, 2025at CHC0 − 6L
Oct 8, 2025at CHC3 − 4L
Oct 6, 2025vs CHC7 − 3W
Oct 4, 2025vs CHC9 − 3W