bayesRatings

Rockies at Marlins

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 3:10 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final COL 3 – MIA 4
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL010200000361
MIA001020014101
Team box
COL·MIA
6
hits
10
2
home runs
1
1
walks
1
10
strikeouts
7
158
pitches thrown
114
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Liam HicksMIA1-2113
Ezequiel TovarCOL1-4112
Owen CaissieMIA3-4001
TJ RumfieldCOL1-4111
Agustin RamirezMIA2-3100
Willi CastroCOL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael LorenzenCOL4.17304
Jaden Hill (L)COL1.22101
Eury PerezMIA7.05318
Calvin Faucher (W)MIA1.01001
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · COL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 31%, MIA 69% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
MIA by 1.5
Expected score
MIA 5.3 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.1
RockiesThe matchupMarlins
+219Our fair odds−219
3.8Expected runs5.3
−0.79Power rating−0.08
1.0Runs / game2.0
2.0Allowed / game1.0
7.0Hits / game8.0
0.00Home runs / game0.00
2.0Walks drawn / game2.0
0−1Season record1−0
2−8Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair31.3%68.7%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+21931%+16637.6%———
MIAMiami Marlins−21969%−19966.6%———
SpreadMIA by 1.5
COLColorado Rockies+1.5our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Marlins by 1.5 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 17%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 11%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 8%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more48%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 16 Kstarted
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·MIA
Mar 27 at MIA
last game
Mar 27 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
COL·MIA
−0.79
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
1.0
runs / game
2.0
2.0
runs allowed / game
1.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
7−3
7.0
hits / game
8.0
0.00
home runs / game
0.00
2.0
walks drawn / game
2.0
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
4.0
4.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.00
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

COL · MIA · 3 days
Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Mar 27at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Sep 18, 2025at COLMIA 9 − 7
Sep 17, 2025at COLMIA 8 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at COLMIA 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at MIACOL 3 − 2
Jun 3, 2025at MIACOL 3 − 2
Jun 2, 2025at MIACOL 6 − 4
Aug 29, 2024at COLMIA 12 − 8
Aug 28, 2024at COLCOL 8 − 2
Aug 27, 2024at COLMIA 9 − 8

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Mar 27at MIA1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at SF0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025at SF3 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at SEA2 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at SEA2 − 9L
Sep 23, 2025at SEA3 − 4L
Sep 21, 2025vs LAA3 − 1W
Sep 20, 2025vs LAA0 − 3L
Sep 19, 2025vs LAA7 − 6W

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 27vs COL2 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs NYM4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs NYM0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs NYM6 − 2W
Sep 25, 2025at PHI0 − 1L
Sep 24, 2025at PHI1 − 11L
Sep 23, 2025at PHI6 − 5W
Sep 21, 2025at TEX4 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025at TEX4 − 3W
Sep 19, 2025at TEX6 − 4W