bayesRatings

Angels at Astros

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 6:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final LAA 9 – HOU 11
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA001230003963
HOU0000380011130
Team box
LAA·HOU
6
hits
13
3
home runs
0
8
walks
5
8
strikeouts
12
192
pitches thrown
156
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Oswald PerazaLAA3-4211
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-5113
Jorge SolerLAA1-2112
Carlos CorreaHOU2-5102
Jake MeyersHOU2-5202
Christian WalkerHOU2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reid DetmersLAA4.26309
Walbert Urena (L)LAA1.04021
Cristian JavierHOU4.24641
Kai-Wei Teng (W)HOU2.11012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +6
LAA +6
123456789
largest lead: HOU 5 · LAA 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, HOU 57% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
HOU by 0.9
Expected score
HOU 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.4
AngelsThe matchupAstros
+132Our fair odds−132
3.8Expected runs4.7
−0.17Power rating+0.03
4.5Runs / game1.0
1.0Allowed / game4.5
10.0Hits / game5.5
2.50Home runs / game0.50
6.0Walks drawn / game4.5
2−0Season record0−2
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13243%+11446.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−13257%−14258.7%———
SpreadHOU by 0.9
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.9our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Astros by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Houston Astros by 1 run: 14%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 11%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 8%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more44%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more33%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 13.14 ERA, 21 Kstarted
HOUCristian Javier SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·HOU
Mar 27 at HOU
last game
Mar 27 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
LAA·HOU
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.5
runs / game
1.0
1.0
runs allowed / game
4.5
2−0
season record
0−2
0−0
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
0−0
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
10.0
hits / game
5.5
2.50
home runs / game
0.50
6.0
walks drawn / game
4.5
12.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
12.5
1.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

LAA · HOU · 3 days
Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 5−5
Mar 27at HOULAA 6 − 2
Mar 26at HOULAA 3 − 0
Sep 28, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at LAAHOU 6 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at HOUHOU 8 − 3
Aug 31, 2025at HOULAA 3 − 0
Aug 30, 2025at HOULAA 4 − 1
Aug 29, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Jun 22, 2025at LAAHOU 8 − 7

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 27at HOU6 − 2W
Mar 26at HOU3 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs HOU2 − 6L
Sep 27, 2025vs HOU1 − 6L
Sep 26, 2025vs HOU4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs KC4 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs KC3 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025vs KC4 − 8L
Sep 21, 2025at COL1 − 3L
Sep 20, 2025at COL3 − 0W

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 27vs LAA2 − 6L
Mar 26vs LAA0 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025at LAA6 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at LAA6 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at LAA3 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at ATH11 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at ATH0 − 6L
Sep 23, 2025at ATH1 − 5L
Sep 21, 2025vs SEA3 − 7L
Sep 20, 2025vs SEA4 − 6L