bayesRatings

Pirates at Mets

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 3:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final PIT 2 – NYM 4
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
PIT000000000112120
NYM00000000013461
Team box
PIT·NYM
12
hits
6
0
home runs
1
4
walks
5
9
strikeouts
8
169
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis Robert Jr.NYM1-4113
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-5101
Nick GonzalesPIT2-6001
Luis TorrensNYM1-1001
Jake MangumPIT2-5100
Juan SotoNYM1-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch KellerPIT6.03003
Hunter Barco (L)PIT1.03210
David PetersonNYM5.16023
Richard Lovelady (W)NYM1.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
PIT +3
1234567891011
largest lead: NYM 2 · PIT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 44%, NYM 56% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
NYM by 0.8
Expected score
NYM 4.8 – 4.0 PIT
Expected total
8.8
PiratesThe matchupMets
+125Our fair odds−125
4.0Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating+0.07
7.0Runs / game11.0
11.0Allowed / game7.0
10.0Hits / game11.0
3.00Home runs / game2.00
0.0Walks drawn / game9.0
0−1Season record1−0
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · NYM chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshi39.6%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12544%+15239.6%———
NYMNew York Mets−12556%−17563.6%———
SpreadNYM by 0.8
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.8our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Mets by 0.8 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 2 runs: 11%New York Mets by 3 runs: 8%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 5%New York Mets by 6 runs: 4%New York Mets by 7 runs: 3%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more43%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more32%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYMDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 11.12 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·NYM
Mar 26 at NYM
last game
Mar 26 vs PIT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
PIT·NYM
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
7.0
runs / game
11.0
11.0
runs allowed / game
7.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
10.0
hits / game
11.0
3.00
home runs / game
2.00
0.0
walks drawn / game
9.0
10.0
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.0
1.00
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

PIT · NYM · 3 days
Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Mar 26at NYMNYM 11 − 7
Jun 29, 2025at PITPIT 12 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 1
May 14, 2025at NYMPIT 4 − 0
May 13, 2025at NYMNYM 2 − 1
May 12, 2025at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Jul 8, 2024at PITPIT 8 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at PITNYM 3 − 2
Jul 6, 2024at PITNYM 5 − 2

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Mar 26at NYM7 − 11L
Sep 28, 2025at ATL1 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at ATL3 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025at ATL9 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025at CIN1 − 2L
Sep 24, 2025at CIN4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at CIN4 − 2W
Sep 21, 2025vs ATH11 − 0W
Sep 20, 2025vs ATH2 − 0W
Sep 19, 2025vs ATH3 − 4L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 26vs PIT11 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at MIA0 − 4L
Sep 27, 2025at MIA5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at MIA2 − 6L
Sep 25, 2025at CHC8 − 5W
Sep 24, 2025at CHC3 − 10L
Sep 23, 2025at CHC9 − 7W
Sep 21, 2025vs WSH2 − 3L
Sep 20, 2025vs WSH3 − 5L
Sep 19, 2025vs WSH12 − 6W