bayesRatings

Rangers at Phillies

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 3:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final TEX 5 – PHI 4
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
TEX10200000025102
PHI0000000031450
Team box
TEX·PHI
10
hits
5
2
home runs
0
3
walks
3
13
strikeouts
11
168
pitches thrown
173
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX2-5112
Corey SeagerTEX2-4111
Brandon MarshPHI1-4002
Bryce HarperPHI1-5001
Adolis GarciaPHI1-4101
Andrew McCutchenTEX1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob LatzTEX4.00013
Chris Martin (W)TEX0.12001
Tyler Alexander (S)TEX1.01001
Aaron NolaPHI5.05327
Jhoan Duran (L)PHI1.02102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
TEX +3
12345678910
largest lead: PHI 0 · TEX 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 4.4 – 3.8 TEX
Expected total
8.2
RangersThe matchupPhillies
+127Our fair odds−127
3.8Expected runs4.4
+0.04Power rating+0.20
3.0Runs / game5.0
5.0Allowed / game3.0
8.0Hits / game10.0
1.00Home runs / game2.00
1.0Walks drawn / game1.0
0−1Season record1−0
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+12744%+12444.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12756%−14859.7%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
TEXTexas Rangers+0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more40%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more30%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob Latz RP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·PHI
Mar 26 at PHI
last game
Mar 26 vs TEX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
TEX·PHI
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
3.0
runs / game
5.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
3.0
0−1
season record
1−0
0−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−0
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
10.0
1.00
home runs / game
2.00
1.0
walks drawn / game
1.0
11.0
batter strikeouts / game
10.0
10.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.0
0.00
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

TEX · PHI · 3 days
Texas RangersPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Mar 26at PHIPHI 5 − 3
Aug 10, 2025at TEXPHI 4 − 2
Aug 9, 2025at TEXPHI 3 − 2
Aug 8, 2025at TEXPHI 9 − 1
May 23, 2024at PHIPHI 5 − 2
May 22, 2024at PHIPHI 11 − 4
May 21, 2024at PHIPHI 5 − 2
Apr 2, 2023at TEXTEX 2 − 1
Apr 1, 2023at TEXTEX 16 − 3
Mar 30, 2023at TEXTEX 11 − 7

TEX · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Mar 26at PHI3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025at CLE8 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025at CLE2 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025at CLE7 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs MIN0 − 4L
Sep 24, 2025vs MIN4 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025vs MIN1 − 4L
Sep 21, 2025vs MIA2 − 4L
Sep 20, 2025vs MIA3 − 4L
Sep 19, 2025vs MIA4 − 6L

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 26vs TEX5 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025at LAD1 − 2L
Oct 8, 2025at LAD8 − 2W
Oct 6, 2025vs LAD3 − 4L
Oct 4, 2025vs LAD3 − 5L
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN2 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs MIN0 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025vs MIN3 − 1W
Sep 25, 2025vs MIA1 − 0W
Sep 24, 2025vs MIA11 − 1W