bayesRatings

Nationals at Cubs

MLB · Saturday, Mar 28 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final WSH 2 – CHC 10
← MLB / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000110000241
CHC0401140010100
Team box
WSH·CHC
4
hits
10
1
home runs
2
4
walks
6
6
strikeouts
7
158
pitches thrown
116
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ian HappCHC1-5113
Miguel AmayaCHC2-4212
James WoodWSH1-4111
Nico HoernerCHC1-3101
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-4200
Matt ShawCHC1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Miles Mikolas (L)WSH5.06434
Cade Horton (W)CHC6.14214

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +8
WSH +8
123456789
largest lead: CHC 8 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 39%, CHC 61% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
CHC by 1.7
Expected score
CHC 5.4 – 3.7 WSH
Expected total
9.2
NationalsThe matchupCubs
+155Our fair odds−155
3.7Expected runs5.4
−0.23Power rating+0.13
10.0Runs / game4.0
4.0Allowed / game10.0
11.0Hits / game8.0
3.00Home runs / game0.00
2.0Walks drawn / game6.0
1−0Season record0−1
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CHC chance
Our model fair39.2%60.8%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+15539%+19833.5%———
CHCChicago Cubs−15561%−23970.5%———
SpreadCHC by 1.7
WSHWashington Nationals+1.7our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 1.7 expected
Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 15 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 16 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more51%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more40%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHCCade Horton SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CHC
Mar 26 at CHC
last game
Mar 26 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
WSH·CHC
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
10.0
runs / game
4.0
4.0
runs allowed / game
10.0
1−0
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
11.0
hits / game
8.0
3.00
home runs / game
0.00
2.0
walks drawn / game
6.0
12.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
12.0
2.00
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

WSH · CHC · 3 days
Washington NationalsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Mar 26at CHCWSH 10 − 4
Sep 7, 2025at CHCWSH 6 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at CHCWSH 2 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 5
Jun 5, 2025at WSHCHC 7 − 1
Jun 4, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Jun 3, 2025at WSHCHC 8 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at CHCCHC 5 − 0
Sep 21, 2024at CHCWSH 5 − 1
Sep 20, 2024at CHCCHC 3 − 1

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 26at CHC10 − 4W
Sep 28, 2025vs CHW0 − 8L
Sep 27, 2025vs CHW6 − 5W
Sep 26, 2025vs CHW9 − 10L
Sep 24, 2025at ATL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025at ATL2 − 3L
Sep 22, 2025at ATL5 − 11L
Sep 21, 2025at NYM3 − 2W
Sep 20, 2025at NYM5 − 3W
Sep 19, 2025at NYM6 − 12L

CHC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 10L
Oct 11, 2025at MIL1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs MIL6 − 0W
Oct 8, 2025vs MIL4 − 3W
Oct 6, 2025at MIL3 − 7L
Oct 4, 2025at MIL3 − 9L
Oct 2, 2025vs SD3 − 1W
Oct 1, 2025vs SD0 − 3L
Sep 30, 2025vs SD3 − 1W
Sep 28, 2025vs STL2 − 0W