bayesRatings

Guardians at Mariners

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 6:20 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final CLE 0 – SEA 8
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000000000021
SEA00042101890
Team box
CLE·SEA
2
hits
9
0
home runs
1
1
walks
5
14
strikeouts
8
166
pitches thrown
141
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brendan DonovanSEA2-3213
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-4102
Luke RaleySEA1-5001
Leo RivasSEA1-4101
Cal RaleighSEA1-4001
Daniel SchneemannCLE1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade Cecconi (L)CLE4.16635
Emerson Hancock (W)SEA6.00019
Cooper Criswell (S)SEA3.02005

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +8
CLE +8
123456789
largest lead: SEA 8 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 47%, SEA 53% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.3 – 3.9 CLE
Expected total
8.2
GuardiansThe matchupMariners
+113Our fair odds−113
3.9Expected runs4.3
+0.08Power rating+0.11
4.3Runs / game4.7
4.7Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game6.0
1.33Home runs / game2.33
2.7Walks drawn / game5.3
2−1Season record1−2
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · SEA chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+11347%+11945.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−11353%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.4our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more39%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more28%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·SEA
Mar 28 at SEA
last game
Mar 28 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
CLE·SEA
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.3
runs / game
4.7
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.3
2−1
season record
1−2
0−0
home record
1−2
2−1
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
6.0
1.33
home runs / game
2.33
2.7
walks drawn / game
5.3
11.0
batter strikeouts / game
12.0
12.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
11.0
0.00
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

CLE · SEA · 4 days
Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 5−5
Mar 28at SEACLE 6 − 5
Mar 27at SEASEA 5 − 1
Mar 26at SEACLE 6 − 4
Aug 31, 2025at CLESEA 4 − 2
Aug 30, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 3
Aug 29, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 15, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 0
Jun 14, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Jun 13, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 2
Jun 20, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 28at SEA6 − 5W
Mar 27at SEA1 − 5L
Mar 26at SEA6 − 4W
Oct 2, 2025vs DET3 − 6L
Oct 1, 2025vs DET6 − 1W
Sep 30, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025vs TEX9 − 8W
Sep 27, 2025vs TEX3 − 2W
Sep 26, 2025vs TEX3 − 7L
Sep 25, 2025vs DET2 − 4L

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Mar 27vs CLE5 − 1W
Mar 26vs CLE4 − 6L
Oct 20, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025at TOR2 − 6L
Oct 17, 2025vs TOR6 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025vs TOR2 − 8L
Oct 15, 2025vs TOR4 − 13L
Oct 13, 2025at TOR10 − 3W
Oct 12, 2025at TOR3 − 1W