bayesRatings

Rays at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, Mar 29 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final TB 11 – STL 7
← MLB / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB03030003211171
STL0013000307110
Team box
TB·STL
17
hits
11
0
home runs
3
4
walks
3
6
strikeouts
5
148
pitches thrown
162
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB5-6204
Jordan WalkerSTL3-4313
Pedro PagesSTL2-4112
Jonathan ArandaTB3-6102
Nolan GormanSTL1-2111
Cedric MullinsTB1-5002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Steven Matz (W)TB5.06412
Dustin May (L)STL4.010613

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +5
TB +5
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · TB 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 48%, STL 52% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.4 – 4.1 STL
Expected total
8.5
RaysThe matchupCardinals
+107Our fair odds−107
4.4Expected runs4.1
−0.02Power rating−0.04
6.0Runs / game7.5
7.5Allowed / game6.0
12.0Hits / game10.0
0.50Home runs / game1.00
4.5Walks drawn / game1.5
0−2Season record2−0
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · STL chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+10748%−12154.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−10752%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins bySTL wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more39%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more28%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 18 Kstarted
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 7.47 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·STL
Mar 28 at STL
last game
Mar 28 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
TB·STL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
6.0
runs / game
7.5
7.5
runs allowed / game
6.0
0−2
season record
2−0
0−0
home record
2−0
0−2
away record
0−0
L2
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
12.0
hits / game
10.0
0.50
home runs / game
1.00
4.5
walks drawn / game
1.5
6.5
batter strikeouts / game
5.5
5.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.5
1.50
errors / game
1.00

Rating Trend

TB · STL · 4 days
Tampa Bay RaysSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
Mar 28at STLSTL 6 − 5
Mar 26at STLSTL 9 − 7
Aug 24, 2025at TBTB 7 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at TBTB 10 − 6
Aug 21, 2025at TBSTL 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2024at STLTB 6 − 4
Aug 7, 2024at STLSTL 5 − 2
Aug 6, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 3
Aug 10, 2023at TBSTL 5 − 2
Aug 9, 2023at TBSTL 6 − 4

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Mar 28at STL5 − 6L
Mar 26at STL7 − 9L
Sep 28, 2025at TOR4 − 13L
Sep 27, 2025at TOR1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at TOR2 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at BAL5 − 6L
Sep 24, 2025at BAL6 − 2W
Sep 23, 2025at BAL0 − 6L
Sep 21, 2025vs BOS7 − 3W
Sep 20, 2025vs BOS3 − 6L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 28vs TB6 − 5W
Mar 26vs TB9 − 7W
Sep 28, 2025at CHC0 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at CHC3 − 7L
Sep 26, 2025at CHC1 − 12L
Sep 24, 2025at SF3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025at SF9 − 8W
Sep 22, 2025at SF6 − 5W
Sep 21, 2025vs MIL5 − 1W
Sep 20, 2025vs MIL2 − 3L