bayesRatings

Rockets at Thunder

NBA · Tuesday, Oct 21 · 6:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final HOU 124 – OKC 125
← NBA / Oct 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OT2OTT
HOU30272225119124
OKC272424291110125
Team box
HOU·OKC
43-97
field goals
46-104
11-39
3-pointers
13-52
27-31
free throws
20-25
52
rebounds
38
23
assists
29
25
turnovers
12
44
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU4939117
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC473555
Chet HolmgrenOKC392872
Kevin DurantHOU472393
Amen ThompsonHOU391845
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU421650

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +12
HOU +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT2OT
largest lead: OKC 6 · HOU 12lead changes: 22

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 24%, OKC 76% · Updated Oct 21, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 11.3
Expected score
OKC 117.7 – 106.4 HOU
Expected total
224.1
RocketsThe matchupThunder
+316Our fair odds−316
106.4Expected points117.7
+0.44Power rating+1.37
0−0Season record0−0
3−7Last 106−4
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Jae'Sean TateOutIsaiah Joe · Jalen Williams
Kenrich Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · OKC chance
Our model fair24.1%75.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+31624%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−31676%————
SpreadOKC by 11.3
HOUHouston Rockets+11.3our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−11.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.1
Over224.1our total————
Under224.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 11.3 expected
Houston Rockets by 53 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 52 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← HOU wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more69%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more55%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more40%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.1 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.568%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CSteven Adamsstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·OKC
May 4, 2025 vs GS
last game
Jun 22, 2025 vs IND
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 21, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right ankle; surgeryOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; contusionOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
HOU·OKC
+0.44
rating (0 = average)
+1.37
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
3−7
last 10
6−4

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 6−4
Apr 4, 2025at HOUHOU 125 − 111
Mar 3, 2025at OKCOKC 137 − 128
Dec 14, 2024at OKCOKC 111 − 96
Dec 1, 2024at HOUHOU 119 − 116
Nov 8, 2024at OKCOKC 126 − 107
Mar 27, 2024at OKCHOU 132 − 126
Feb 27, 2024at OKCOKC 112 − 95
Feb 25, 2024at HOUOKC 123 − 110
Dec 6, 2023at HOUHOU 110 − 101
Feb 15, 2023at OKCOKC 133 − 96

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 4, 2025vs GS89 − 103L
May 2, 2025at GS115 − 107W
Apr 30, 2025vs GS131 − 116W
Apr 28, 2025at GS106 − 109L
Apr 26, 2025at GS93 − 104L
Apr 23, 2025vs GS109 − 94W
Apr 20, 2025vs GS85 − 95L
Apr 13, 2025vs DEN111 − 126L
Apr 11, 2025at LAL109 − 140L
Apr 9, 2025at LAC117 − 134L

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jun 22, 2025vs IND103 − 91W
Jun 19, 2025at IND91 − 108L
Jun 16, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Jun 13, 2025at IND111 − 104W
Jun 11, 2025at IND107 − 116L
Jun 8, 2025vs IND123 − 107W
Jun 5, 2025vs IND110 − 111L
May 28, 2025vs MIN124 − 94W
May 26, 2025at MIN128 − 126W
May 24, 2025at MIN101 − 143L