bayesRatings

Heat at Magic

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 22 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final MIA 121 – ORL 125
← NBA / Oct 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA39262630121
ORL38312135125
Team box
MIA·ORL
44-91
field goals
42-90
12-35
3-pointers
12-30
21-27
free throws
29-35
47
rebounds
46
26
assists
23
19
turnovers
15
54
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Norman PowellMIA362894
Paolo BancheroORL3524111
Franz WagnerORL362446
Desmond BaneORL332343
Andrew WigginsMIA321841
Davion MitchellMIA3516612

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +12
MIA +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 7 · MIA 12lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 41%, ORL 59% · Updated Oct 22, 2025

Expected margin
ORL by 3.3
Expected score
ORL 103.6 – 100.3 MIA
Expected total
203.9
HeatThe matchupMagic
+143Our fair odds−143
100.3Expected points103.6
−0.14Power rating−0.01
0−0Season record0−0
2−8Last 105−5
Kasparas Jakucionis · Tyler HerroOutMoritz Wagner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ORL chance
Our model fair41.1%58.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+14341%————
ORLOrlando Magic−14359%————
SpreadORL by 3.3
MIAMiami Heat+3.3our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 203.9
Over203.9our total————
Under203.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 3.3 expected
Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%
← MIA wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more49%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more34%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

203.9 expected
168 points: <1%169 points: <1%170 points: <1%171 points: <1%172 points: 1%173 points: 1%174 points: 1%175 points: 1%176 points: 1%177 points: 1%178 points: 1%179 points: 1%180 points: 1%181 points: 1%182 points: 1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 2%188 points: 2%189 points: 2%190 points: 2%191 points: 2%192 points: 2%193 points: 2%194 points: 2%195 points: 2%196 points: 2%197 points: 2%198 points: 2%199 points: 2%200 points: 2%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: <1%236 points: <1%237 points: <1%238 points: <1%239 points: <1%240 points: <1%241 points: <1%242 points: <1%243 points: <1%244 points: <1%245 points: <1%246 points: <1%247 points: <1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 193.571%
Total over 203.550%
Total over 213.529%
Total from 194 to 21341%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
FNikola Jovicstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ORL
Apr 28, 2025 vs CLE
last game
Apr 29, 2025 at BOS
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 21, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · right groin; strainOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
Orlando Magic
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
MIA·ORL
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
2−8
last 10
5−5

Rating Trend

MIA · ORL · 2 days
Miami HeatOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 4−6
Jan 27, 2025at MIAMIA 125 − 119
Dec 26, 2024at ORLMIA 89 − 88
Dec 21, 2024at ORLORL 121 − 114
Oct 23, 2024at MIAORL 116 − 97
Feb 6, 2024at MIAMIA 121 − 95
Jan 21, 2024at ORLORL 105 − 87
Jan 12, 2024at MIAMIA 99 − 96
Dec 20, 2023at ORLMIA 115 − 106
Apr 9, 2023at MIAMIA 123 − 110
Mar 11, 2023at ORLORL 126 − 114

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Apr 28, 2025vs CLE83 − 138L
Apr 26, 2025vs CLE87 − 124L
Apr 23, 2025at CLE112 − 121L
Apr 20, 2025at CLE100 − 121L
Apr 13, 2025vs WSH118 − 119L
Apr 11, 2025at NO153 − 104W
Apr 9, 2025at CHI111 − 119L
Apr 7, 2025vs PHI117 − 105W
Apr 5, 2025vs MIL115 − 121L
Apr 3, 2025vs MEM108 − 110L

ORL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 29, 2025at BOS89 − 120L
Apr 27, 2025vs BOS98 − 107L
Apr 25, 2025vs BOS95 − 93W
Apr 23, 2025at BOS100 − 109L
Apr 20, 2025at BOS86 − 103L
Apr 13, 2025at ATL105 − 117L
Apr 11, 2025at IND129 − 115W
Apr 9, 2025vs BOS96 − 76W
Apr 8, 2025vs ATL119 − 112W
Apr 3, 2025at WSH109 − 97W