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Thunder at Pacers

NBA · Thursday, Oct 23 · 6:30 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final OKC 141 – IND 135
← NBA / Oct 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OT2OTT
OKC223227321117141
IND252231351111135
Team box
OKC·IND
43-95
field goals
46-105
10-35
3-pointers
13-43
45-51
free throws
30-40
60
rebounds
55
17
assists
21
14
turnovers
14
50
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC455585
Bennedict MathurinIND4536111
Pascal SiakamIND4432154
Ajay MitchellOKC382634
Aaron WigginsOKC362390
Obi ToppinIND402053

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +7
OKC +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT2OT
largest lead: IND 5 · OKC 7lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 64%, IND 36% · Updated Oct 23, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 3.8
Expected score
OKC 117.9 – 114.0 IND
Expected total
231.9
ThunderThe matchupPacers
−175Our fair odds+175
117.9Expected points114.0
+1.37Power rating+0.56
1−0Season record0−0
7−3Last 105−5
Alex Caruso · Cason Wallace
Isaiah Joe · Jalen Williams
Kenrich WilliamsOutKam Jones · Quenton Jackson
T.J. McConnell · Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · IND chance
Our model fair63.7%36.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17564%————
INDIndiana Pacers+17536%————
SpreadOKC by 3.8
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−3.8our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+3.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.9
Over231.9our total————
Under231.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 3.8 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%
← OKC wins byIND wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more50%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more35%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

231.9 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.531%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·IND
Oct 21, 2025 vs HOU
last game
Jun 22, 2025 at OKC
1 day
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 23, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · n/a; concussion protocolOut
OKCCason Wallace · left knee; sprainOut
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; contusionOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Indiana Pacers
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season
OKC·IND
+1.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.56
1−0
season record
0−0
1−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
—
7−3
last 10
5−5

Rating Trend

OKC · IND · 3 days
Oklahoma City ThunderIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 4−6
Jun 22, 2025at OKCOKC 103 − 91post
Jun 19, 2025at INDIND 108 − 91post
Jun 16, 2025at OKCOKC 120 − 109post
Jun 13, 2025at INDOKC 111 − 104post
Jun 11, 2025at INDIND 116 − 107post
Jun 8, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 107post
Jun 5, 2025at OKCIND 111 − 110post
Mar 29, 2025at OKCOKC 132 − 111
Dec 26, 2024at INDOKC 120 − 114
Apr 5, 2024at INDIND 126 − 112

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Jun 22, 2025vs IND103 − 91W
Jun 19, 2025at IND91 − 108L
Jun 16, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Jun 13, 2025at IND111 − 104W
Jun 11, 2025at IND107 − 116L
Jun 8, 2025vs IND123 − 107W
Jun 5, 2025vs IND110 − 111L
May 28, 2025vs MIN124 − 94W
May 26, 2025at MIN128 − 126W

IND · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 22, 2025at OKC91 − 103L
Jun 19, 2025vs OKC108 − 91W
Jun 16, 2025at OKC109 − 120L
Jun 13, 2025vs OKC104 − 111L
Jun 11, 2025vs OKC116 − 107W
Jun 8, 2025at OKC107 − 123L
Jun 5, 2025at OKC111 − 110W
May 31, 2025vs NY125 − 108W
May 29, 2025at NY94 − 111L
May 27, 2025vs NY130 − 121W