bayesRatings

Penguins at Kings

NHL · Thursday, Oct 16 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final PIT 4 – LA 2
← NHL / Oct 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PIT0224
LA2002
Team box
PIT·LA
26
shots
32
1 of 2
power play
0 of 2
39.0
faceoff %
61.0
13
hits
23
15
blocked shots
10
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Erik KarlssonPIT021
Parker WotherspoonPIT021
Warren FoegeleLA105
Kevin FialaLA102
Evgeni MalkinPIT102
Connor DewarPIT102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Arturs SilovsPIT3230.938
Anton ForsbergLA2522.880

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
PIT +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 2 · PIT 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 37%, LA 63% · Updated Oct 16, 2025

Expected margin
LA by 1.0
Expected score
LA 3.5 – 2.5 PIT
Expected total
6.0
PenguinsThe matchupKings
+168Our fair odds−168
2.5Expected goals3.5
−0.13Power rating+0.16
2.8Goals / game3.0
3.2Allowed / game4.0
25.8Shots / game29.2
48.6Faceoff %48.3
18.8Hits / game29.2
2−2Season record1−3
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · LA chance
Our model fair37.3%62.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Penguins+16837%————
LALos Angeles Kings−16863%————
SpreadLA by 1.0
PITPittsburgh Penguins+1our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 1.0 expected
Pittsburgh Penguins by 7 goals: <1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 6%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 6%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 22%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 18%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 13%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 17%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 4%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 7 goals: <1%
← PIT wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more33%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more15%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.541%
Total over 7.524%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .892 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .892 save %, 3.32 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·LA
Oct 14, 2025 at ANA
last game
Oct 13, 2025 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
PIT·LA
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
2.8
goals / game
3.0
3.2
goals allowed / game
4.0
2−2
season record
1−3
1−1
home record
0−1
1−1
away record
1−2
L2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
3−7
25.8
shots / game
29.2
48.6
faceoff %
48.3
18.8
hits / game
29.2
19.0
blocked shots / game
13.2
4.0
takeaways / game
6.0
17.8
giveaways / game
20.2

Rating Trend

PIT · LA · 3 days
Pittsburgh PenguinsLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LA 4−4
Jan 20, 2025at LAPIT 5 − 1
Dec 17, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 2 OT
Feb 18, 2024at PITLA 2 − 1
Nov 9, 2023at LAPIT 4 − 3 OT
Feb 11, 2023at LALA 6 − 0
Oct 20, 2022at PITPIT 6 − 1
Jan 30, 2022at PITLA 4 − 3
Jan 13, 2022at LALA 6 − 2

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Oct 14, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Oct 11, 2025vs NYR1 − 6L
Oct 9, 2025vs NYI4 − 3W
Oct 7, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Apr 17, 2025vs WSH5 − 2W
Apr 13, 2025vs BOS1 − 4L
Apr 11, 2025at NJ4 − 2W
Apr 8, 2025vs CHI5 − 0W
Apr 6, 2025at CHI1 − 3L
Apr 5, 2025at DAL5 − 3W

LA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 13, 2025at MIN3 − 4L
Oct 11, 2025at WPG2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025at VGK6 − 5W
Oct 7, 2025vs COL1 − 4L
May 1, 2025at EDM4 − 6L
Apr 29, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Apr 27, 2025at EDM3 − 4L
Apr 25, 2025at EDM4 − 7L
Apr 23, 2025vs EDM6 − 2W
Apr 21, 2025vs EDM6 − 5W