bayesRatings

Hurricanes at Kings

NHL · Saturday, Oct 18 · 8:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final CAR 4 – LA 3
← NHL / Oct 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
CAR21014
LA02103
Team box
CAR·LA
40
shots
28
0 of 3
power play
1 of 1
62.2
faceoff %
37.8
18
hits
29
20
blocked shots
20
2
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jordan StaalCAR204
K'Andre MillerCAR023
Adrian KempeLA020
Seth JarvisCAR106
Trevor MooreLA105
Jesperi KotkaniemiCAR102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Brandon BussiCAR2825.893
Anton ForsbergLA4036.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
CAR +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: LA 0 · CAR 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 47%, LA 53% · Updated Oct 18, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LA 3.0 – 2.8 CAR
Expected total
5.8
HurricanesThe matchupKings
+114Our fair odds−114
2.8Expected goals3.0
+0.27Power rating+0.16
4.8Goals / game2.8
2.0Allowed / game4.0
36.8Shots / game29.8
50.9Faceoff %50.8
20.8Hits / game28.0
4−0Season record1−4
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · LA chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Hurricanes+11447%————
LALos Angeles Kings−11453%————
Spreadabout even
CARCarolina Hurricanes+0.2our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: <1%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 5%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 10%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 9%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 21%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 22%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 12%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 6%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← CAR wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more31%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more21%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CARBrandon Bussi G · last 1 start: .941 save %, 1.00 GAAstarted
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .860 save %, 3.93 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·LA
Oct 16, 2025 at ANA
last game
Oct 16, 2025 vs PIT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
CAR·LA
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
4.8
goals / game
2.8
2.0
goals allowed / game
4.0
4−0
season record
1−4
2−0
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
1−2
W4
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
2−8
36.8
shots / game
29.8
50.9
faceoff %
50.8
20.8
hits / game
28.0
12.5
blocked shots / game
12.6
4.2
takeaways / game
5.4
19.0
giveaways / game
19.4

Rating Trend

CAR · LA · 5 days
Carolina HurricanesLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LA 3−5
Mar 22, 2025at LALA 7 − 2
Feb 1, 2025at CARLA 4 − 2
Jan 15, 2024at CARLA 5 − 2
Oct 14, 2023at LACAR 6 − 5 SO
Jan 31, 2023at CARCAR 5 − 4 OT
Dec 3, 2022at LACAR 4 − 2
Dec 18, 2021at CARCAR 5 − 1
Nov 20, 2021at LACAR 5 − 4

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Oct 16, 2025at ANA4 − 1W
Oct 14, 2025at SJ5 − 1W
Oct 11, 2025vs PHI4 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025vs NJ6 − 3W
May 28, 2025vs FLA3 − 5L
May 26, 2025at FLA3 − 0W
May 24, 2025at FLA2 − 6L
May 22, 2025vs FLA0 − 5L
May 20, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
May 15, 2025at WSH3 − 1W

LA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT2 − 4L
Oct 13, 2025at MIN3 − 4L
Oct 11, 2025at WPG2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025at VGK6 − 5W
Oct 7, 2025vs COL1 − 4L
May 1, 2025at EDM4 − 6L
Apr 29, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Apr 27, 2025at EDM3 − 4L
Apr 25, 2025at EDM4 − 7L
Apr 23, 2025vs EDM6 − 2W