bayesRatings

Panthers at Sabres

NHL · Saturday, Oct 18 · 12:00 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final FLA 0 – BUF 3
← NHL / Oct 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
FLA0000
BUF1203
Team box
FLA·BUF
32
shots
31
0 of 7
power play
2 of 4
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
29
hits
23
17
blocked shots
20
12
penalty minutes
28
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Josh DoanBUF206
Owen PowerBUF102
Rasmus DahlinBUF014
Alex TuchBUF012
Tage ThompsonBUF012
Peyton KrebsBUF012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Sergei BobrovskyFLA3128.903
Alex LyonBUF32321.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +3
FLA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BUF 3 · FLA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was FLA 58%, BUF 42% · Updated Oct 18, 2025

Expected margin
FLA by 0.7
Expected score
FLA 3.6 – 2.9 BUF
Expected total
6.5
PanthersThe matchupSabres
−138Our fair odds+138
3.6Expected goals2.9
+0.41Power rating−0.15
2.5Goals / game2.5
2.8Allowed / game3.5
27.8Shots / game28.5
46.9Faceoff %40.0
27.7Hits / game24.0
3−3Season record1−3
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
FLA chance · BUF chance
Our model fair57.9%42.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
FLAFlorida Panthers−13858%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres+13842%————
SpreadFLA by 0.7
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.7our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Florida Panthers by 0.7 expected
Florida Panthers by 7 goals: <1%Florida Panthers by 6 goals: 1%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 4%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 9%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 15%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 12%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 18%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 22%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 7%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 7%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 1%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: <1%Buffalo Sabres by 7 goals: <1%
← FLA wins byBUF wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more41%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more29%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
FLASergei Bobrovsky G · last 5 starts: .933 save %, 1.62 GAAstarted
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .916 save %, 2.84 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
FLA·BUF
Oct 16, 2025 at NJ
last game
Oct 15, 2025 vs OTT
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
FLA·BUF
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
2.5
goals / game
2.5
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.5
3−3
season record
1−3
3−0
home record
1−2
0−3
away record
0−1
L3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
27.8
shots / game
28.5
46.9
faceoff %
40.0
27.7
hits / game
24.0
11.5
blocked shots / game
14.8
2.8
takeaways / game
4.2
15.5
giveaways / game
17.2

Rating Trend

FLA · BUF · 5 days
Florida PanthersBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 2−8
Apr 12, 2025at FLAFLA 3 − 2 SO
Mar 8, 2025at FLAFLA 4 − 0
Oct 28, 2024at BUFFLA 5 − 2
Oct 12, 2024at BUFBUF 5 − 2
Apr 13, 2024at FLAFLA 3 − 2 OT
Feb 27, 2024at FLAFLA 3 − 2
Feb 15, 2024at BUFFLA 4 − 0
Apr 4, 2023at FLAFLA 2 − 1
Feb 24, 2023at FLABUF 3 − 1
Jan 16, 2023at BUFFLA 4 − 1

FLA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Oct 16, 2025at NJ1 − 3L
Oct 15, 2025at DET1 − 4L
Oct 13, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Oct 11, 2025vs OTT6 − 2W
Oct 9, 2025vs PHI2 − 1W
Oct 7, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Jun 17, 2025vs EDM5 − 1W
Jun 14, 2025at EDM5 − 2W
Jun 12, 2025vs EDM4 − 5L
Jun 9, 2025vs EDM6 − 1W

BUF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 15, 2025vs OTT8 − 4W
Oct 13, 2025vs COL1 − 3L
Oct 11, 2025at BOS1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs NYR0 − 4L
Apr 17, 2025vs PHI5 − 4W
Apr 15, 2025vs TOR0 − 4L
Apr 13, 2025at TB4 − 7L
Apr 12, 2025at FLA2 − 3L
Apr 10, 2025at CBJ2 − 3L
Apr 8, 2025vs CAR3 − 0W