bayesRatings

Flames at Oilers

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 8:00 PM CT · Rogers Place · Final CGY 1 – EDM 5
← NHL / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CGY1001
EDM2215
Team box
CGY·EDM
19
shots
39
0 of 4
power play
3 of 6
56.6
faceoff %
43.4
27
hits
14
13
blocked shots
21
89
penalty minutes
65
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Connor McDavidEDM056
Leon DraisaitlEDM304
Zach HymanEDM126
Evan BouchardEDM022
Ryan Nugent-HopkinsEDM104
MacKenzie WeegarCGY102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dustin WolfCGY3934.872
Connor IngramEDM1918.947

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
EDM +4
CGY +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: EDM 4 · CGY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CGY 40%, EDM 60% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
EDM by 0.6
Expected score
EDM 3.5 – 2.9 CGY
Expected total
6.4
FlamesThe matchupOilers
+147Our fair odds−147
2.9Expected goals3.5
−0.09Power rating+0.13
2.7Goals / game3.4
3.0Allowed / game3.4
29.9Shots / game28.3
50.1Faceoff %52.7
21.2Hits / game17.8
15−21Season record18−19
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CGY chance · EDM chance
Our model fair40.5%59.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CGYCalgary Flames+14740%————
EDMEdmonton Oilers−14760%————
SpreadEDM by 0.6
CGYCalgary Flames+0.6our margin————
EDMEdmonton Oilers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Edmonton Oilers by 0.6 expected
Calgary Flames by 6 goals: <1%Calgary Flames by 5 goals: 1%Calgary Flames by 4 goals: 4%Calgary Flames by 3 goals: 8%Calgary Flames by 2 goals: 8%Calgary Flames by 1 goal: 19%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 22%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 11%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 14%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 8%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 3%Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: 1%
← CGY wins byEDM wins by →
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more38%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 3 or more27%
Calgary Flames wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CGYDustin Wolf G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 2.41 GAAstarted
EDMConnor Ingram G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 2.75 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CGY·EDM
Dec 20, 2025 vs VGK
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs VGK
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
CGY·EDM
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
2.7
goals / game
3.4
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.4
15−21
season record
18−19
9−7
home record
9−6
6−14
away record
9−13
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
29.9
shots / game
28.3
50.1
faceoff %
52.7
21.2
hits / game
17.8
14.7
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.3
takeaways / game
4.2
16.0
giveaways / game
16.0

Rating Trend

CGY · EDM · 70 days
Calgary FlamesEdmonton Oilers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · EDM 7−3
Oct 8, 2025at EDMCGY 4 − 3 SO
Mar 29, 2025at EDMEDM 3 − 2 OT
Nov 3, 2024at CGYEDM 4 − 2
Oct 13, 2024at EDMCGY 4 − 1
Apr 6, 2024at CGYEDM 4 − 2
Feb 24, 2024at EDMCGY 6 − 3
Jan 20, 2024at CGYEDM 3 − 1
Oct 29, 2023at EDMEDM 5 − 2
Dec 27, 2022at CGYEDM 2 − 1
Oct 29, 2022at CGYEDM 3 − 2

CGY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 20, 2025vs VGK6 − 3W
Dec 18, 2025vs SEA4 − 2W
Dec 16, 2025at SJ3 − 6L
Dec 13, 2025at LA2 − 1W
Dec 10, 2025vs DET3 − 4L
Dec 8, 2025vs BUF7 − 4W
Dec 6, 2025vs UTAH2 − 0W
Dec 4, 2025vs MIN4 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at NSH1 − 5L
Nov 30, 2025at CAR0 − 1L

EDM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 21, 2025vs VGK4 − 3W
Dec 20, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025at BOS3 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025at PIT6 − 4W
Dec 14, 2025at MTL1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025at TOR6 − 3W
Dec 11, 2025vs DET4 − 1W
Dec 9, 2025vs BUF3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs WPG6 − 2W
Dec 4, 2025vs SEA9 − 4W