bayesRatings

Mammoth at Panthers

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 27 · 6:00 PM CT · Amerant Bank Arena · Final UTAH 4 – FLA 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
UTAH1124
FLA0213
Team box
UTAH·FLA
20
shots
30
0 of 3
power play
0 of 4
58.3
faceoff %
41.7
16
hits
31
13
blocked shots
7
12
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Vitek VanecekUTAH3027.900
Sergei BobrovskyFLA1916.842

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
FLA +3
UTAH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: FLA 0 · UTAH 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 44%, FLA 56% · Updated Jan 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
FLA 3.0 – 2.8 UTAH
Expected total
5.8
MammothThe matchupPanthers
+130Our fair odds−130
2.8Expected goals3.0
+0.06Power rating+0.16
3.1Goals / game3.1
2.8Allowed / game3.2
28.5Shots / game28.9
49.0Faceoff %47.3
18.8Hits / game25.2
27−25Season record28−23
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · FLA chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+13044%————
FLAFlorida Panthers−13056%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth+0.3our margin————
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 1%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 4%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 9%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 9%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 19%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 25%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 11%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 12%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 6%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 2%Florida Panthers by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byFLA wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more32%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more21%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHVitek Vanecek G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.63 GAAstarted
FLASergei Bobrovsky G · last 5 starts: .841 save %, 3.97 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·FLA
Jan 26 at TB
last game
Jan 25 at CHI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
UTAH·FLA
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
3.1
goals / game
3.1
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.2
27−25
season record
28−23
15−9
home record
14−13
12−16
away record
14−10
L1
streak
W3
8−2
last 10
6−4
28.5
shots / game
28.9
49.0
faceoff %
47.3
18.8
hits / game
25.2
14.1
blocked shots / game
12.3
4.1
takeaways / game
4.3
16.1
giveaways / game
14.2

Rating Trend

UTAH · FLA · 102 days
Utah MammothFlorida Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · FLA 3−0
Dec 10, 2025at UTAHFLA 4 − 3
Mar 28, 2025at FLAFLA 2 − 1 OT
Jan 8, 2025at UTAHFLA 4 − 1

UTAH · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Jan 26at TB0 − 2L
Jan 24at NSH5 − 2W
Jan 21vs PHI5 − 4W
Jan 17vs SEA6 − 3W
Jan 15vs DAL2 − 1W
Jan 13vs TOR6 − 1W
Jan 11vs CBJ2 − 3L
Jan 9vs STL4 − 2W
Jan 7vs OTT3 − 1W
Jan 5at NYR3 − 2W

FLA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jan 25at CHI5 − 1W
Jan 24at MIN4 − 3W
Jan 22at WPG2 − 1W
Jan 19vs SJ1 − 4L
Jan 17at WSH5 − 2W
Jan 16at CAR1 − 9L
Jan 12at BUF4 − 3W
Jan 10at OTT3 − 2W
Jan 8at MTL2 − 6L
Jan 6at TOR1 − 4L