bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Mammoth

NHL · Sunday, Jan 11 · 6:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final CBJ 3 – UTAH 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
CBJ11013
UTAH11002
Team box
CBJ·UTAH
36
shots
27
2 of 3
power play
0 of 2
47.9
faceoff %
52.1
18
hits
15
23
blocked shots
21
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ2725.926
Vitek VanecekUTAH3633.917

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: UTAH 1 · CBJ 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 45%, UTAH 55% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
UTAH 3.2 – 2.8 CBJ
Expected total
6.1
Blue JacketsThe matchupMammoth
+122Our fair odds−122
2.8Expected goals3.2
−0.08Power rating−0.03
3.0Goals / game3.0
3.4Allowed / game2.8
30.2Shots / game28.2
50.9Faceoff %48.3
19.1Hits / game18.6
18−26Season record22−23
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+12245%————
UTAHUtah Mammoth−12255%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.4our margin————
UTAHUtah Mammoth−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 4%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 8%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 22%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 20%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 11%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 13%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 7%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 3%Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: 1%
← CBJ wins byUTAH wins by →
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more35%
Utah Mammoth wins by 3 or more24%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .899 save %, 3.44 GAAstarted
UTAHVitek Vanecek G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 2.77 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·UTAH
Jan 10 at COL
last game
Jan 9 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
CBJ·UTAH
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.0
goals / game
3.0
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.8
18−26
season record
22−23
9−11
home record
11−8
9−15
away record
11−15
L4
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
6−4
30.2
shots / game
28.2
50.9
faceoff %
48.3
19.1
hits / game
18.6
14.4
blocked shots / game
14.1
4.9
takeaways / game
4.0
16.3
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

CBJ · UTAH · 86 days
Columbus Blue JacketsUtah Mammoth
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · UTAH 1−1
Feb 6, 2025at CBJUTAH 3 − 2 OT
Jan 31, 2025at UTAHCBJ 3 − 2 OT

CBJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jan 10at COL0 − 4L
Jan 8at VGK3 − 5L
Jan 6at SJ2 − 5L
Jan 4vs PIT4 − 5L
Jan 3vs BUF5 − 1W
Dec 31, 2025vs NJ2 − 3L
Dec 29, 2025at OTT4 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYI4 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at LA3 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at ANA3 − 4L

UTAH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jan 9vs STL4 − 2W
Jan 7vs OTT3 − 1W
Jan 5at NYR3 − 2W
Jan 3at NJ1 − 4L
Jan 1at NYI7 − 2W
Dec 29, 2025vs NSH3 − 4L
Dec 23, 2025at COL0 − 1L
Dec 21, 2025vs WPG4 − 3W
Dec 19, 2025vs NJ1 − 2L
Dec 17, 2025at DET4 − 1W