bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Sharks

NHL · Tuesday, Jan 6 · 9:00 PM CT · SAP Center at San Jose · Final CBJ 2 – SJ 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ0112
SJ1135
Team box
CBJ·SJ
36
shots
36
0 of 3
power play
1 of 5
57.7
faceoff %
42.3
12
hits
20
16
blocked shots
15
15
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ3431.912
Alex NedeljkovicSJ3634.944

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SJ +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: SJ 3 · CBJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 54%, SJ 46% · Updated Jan 6

Expected margin
CBJ by 0.5
Expected score
CBJ 3.8 – 3.2 SJ
Expected total
7.0
Blue JacketsThe matchupSharks
−119Our fair odds+119
3.8Expected goals3.2
−0.08Power rating−0.41
3.1Goals / game3.1
3.3Allowed / game3.6
30.2Shots / game25.0
50.5Faceoff %47.4
19.0Hits / game20.6
18−23Season record20−21
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · SJ chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−11954%————
SJSan Jose Sharks+11946%————
SpreadCBJ by 0.5
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.5our margin————
SJSan Jose Sharks+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Columbus Blue Jackets by 0.5 expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 7 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 8%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 14%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 17%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 22%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 8%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 9%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 4%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins bySJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more38%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more27%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.538%
Total over 8.529%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .926 save %, 2.40 GAAstarted
SJAlex Nedeljkovic G · last 5 starts: .860 save %, 3.47 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·SJ
Jan 4 vs PIT
last game
Jan 3 vs TB
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
CBJ·SJ
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.41
3.1
goals / game
3.1
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.6
18−23
season record
20−21
9−11
home record
11−11
9−12
away record
9−10
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
30.2
shots / game
25.0
50.5
faceoff %
47.4
19.0
hits / game
20.6
14.2
blocked shots / game
15.8
5.0
takeaways / game
4.5
16.4
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

CBJ · SJ · 81 days
Columbus Blue JacketsSan Jose Sharks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SJ 2−6
Jan 16, 2025at CBJCBJ 4 − 1
Nov 5, 2024at SJSJ 2 − 1 OT
Mar 16, 2024at CBJCBJ 4 − 2
Feb 17, 2024at SJCBJ 4 − 3
Mar 14, 2023at SJCBJ 6 − 5 OT
Jan 21, 2023at CBJCBJ 5 − 3
Apr 19, 2022at SJSJ 3 − 2
Dec 5, 2021at CBJCBJ 6 − 4

CBJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 4vs PIT4 − 5L
Jan 3vs BUF5 − 1W
Dec 31, 2025vs NJ2 − 3L
Dec 29, 2025at OTT4 − 1W
Dec 28, 2025vs NYI4 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at LA3 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025vs MIN2 − 5L
Dec 16, 2025vs ANA4 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L

SJ · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 3vs TB3 − 7L
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN4 − 3W
Dec 29, 2025at ANA5 − 4W
Dec 27, 2025at VAN6 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025at VGK2 − 7L
Dec 20, 2025vs SEA2 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025vs DAL3 − 5L
Dec 16, 2025vs CGY6 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025at PIT6 − 5W
Dec 11, 2025at TOR3 − 2W