bayesRatings

Sharks at Canucks

NHL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final SJ 6 – VAN 3
← NHL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SJ2136
VAN1023
Team box
SJ·VAN
37
shots
27
1 of 5
power play
1 of 4
44.4
faceoff %
55.6
12
hits
25
13
blocked shots
9
8
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Macklin CelebriniSJ118
William EklundSJ114
Igor ChernyshovSJ112
Conor GarlandVAN021
Filip HronekVAN021
Drew O'ConnorVAN103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Yaroslav AskarovSJ2724.889
Thatcher DemkoVAN3632.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
SJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 0 · SJ 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SJ 38%, VAN 62% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
VAN by 0.7
Expected score
VAN 3.6 – 2.9 SJ
Expected total
6.4
SharksThe matchupCanucks
+162Our fair odds−162
2.9Expected goals3.6
−0.46Power rating−0.13
2.9Goals / game2.9
3.5Allowed / game3.4
25.0Shots / game26.4
47.2Faceoff %48.6
20.9Hits / game21.5
17−20Season record15−21
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · VAN chance
Our model fair38.1%61.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+16238%————
VANVancouver Canucks−16262%————
SpreadVAN by 0.7
SJSan Jose Sharks+0.7our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Vancouver Canucks by 0.7 expected
San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 4%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 8%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 7%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 18%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 23%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 11%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 15%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: 1%
← SJ wins byVAN wins by →
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more39%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 3 or more28%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 3.41 GAAstarted
VANThatcher Demko G · last 5 starts: .929 save %, 1.82 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·VAN
Dec 23, 2025 at VGK
last game
Dec 22, 2025 at PHI
3 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
SJ·VAN
−0.46
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
2.9
goals / game
2.9
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.4
17−20
season record
15−21
10−10
home record
4−11
7−10
away record
11−10
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
25.0
shots / game
26.4
47.2
faceoff %
48.6
20.9
hits / game
21.5
15.6
blocked shots / game
14.6
4.3
takeaways / game
4.2
15.3
giveaways / game
14.7

Rating Trend

SJ · VAN · 71 days
San Jose SharksVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 8−2
Nov 28, 2025at SJSJ 3 − 2
Apr 14, 2025at VANVAN 2 − 1 OT
Feb 6, 2025at SJVAN 2 − 1 OT
Dec 23, 2024at VANVAN 4 − 3
Nov 2, 2024at SJVAN 3 − 2
Dec 23, 2023at VANVAN 7 − 4
Nov 25, 2023at SJSJ 4 − 3
Nov 20, 2023at VANVAN 3 − 1
Nov 2, 2023at SJVAN 10 − 1
Mar 23, 2023at VANVAN 7 − 2

SJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 23, 2025at VGK2 − 7L
Dec 20, 2025vs SEA2 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025vs DAL3 − 5L
Dec 16, 2025vs CGY6 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025at PIT6 − 5W
Dec 11, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at PHI1 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at CAR4 − 1W
Dec 5, 2025at DAL1 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025vs WSH1 − 7L

VAN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 22, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at BOS5 − 4W
Dec 19, 2025at NYI4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Dec 14, 2025at NJ2 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs DET0 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs MIN4 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at COL1 − 3L