bayesRatings

Canucks at Bruins

NHL · Saturday, Dec 20 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final VAN 5 – BOS 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
VAN112015
BOS121004
Team box
VAN·BOS
23
shots
43
1 of 4
power play
1 of 3
39.0
faceoff %
61.0
29
hits
20
15
blocked shots
11
8
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Linus KarlssonVAN213
Morgan GeekieBOS114
Liam OhgrenVAN113
Andrew PeekeBOS104
Pavel ZachaBOS102
Tanner JeannotBOS101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Kevin LankinenVAN4339.907
Jeremy SwaymanBOS2319.826

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: BOS 1 · VAN 1lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 43%, BOS 57% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
BOS by 0.5
Expected score
BOS 3.4 – 2.9 VAN
Expected total
6.3
CanucksThe matchupBruins
+134Our fair odds−134
2.9Expected goals3.4
−0.17Power rating−0.04
2.8Goals / game3.3
3.3Allowed / game3.1
26.6Shots / game26.9
48.6Faceoff %51.6
20.9Hits / game24.7
14−20Season record20−15
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · BOS chance
Our model fair42.7%57.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+13443%————
BOSBoston Bruins−13457%————
SpreadBOS by 0.5
VANVancouver Canucks+0.5our margin————
BOSBoston Bruins−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Bruins by 0.5 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 20%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 21%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 11%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 14%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 8%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 3%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: 1%
← VAN wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more37%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more25%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .849 save %, 3.50 GAAstarted
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.62 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·BOS
Dec 19, 2025 at NYI
last game
Dec 18, 2025 vs EDM
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
VAN·BOS
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
2.8
goals / game
3.3
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.1
14−20
season record
20−15
4−11
home record
12−6
10−9
away record
8−9
W3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
26.6
shots / game
26.9
48.6
faceoff %
51.6
20.9
hits / game
24.7
14.5
blocked shots / game
16.4
4.2
takeaways / game
4.7
14.7
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

VAN · BOS · 67 days
Vancouver CanucksBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BOS 5−3
Dec 14, 2024at VANBOS 5 − 1
Nov 26, 2024at BOSVAN 2 − 0
Feb 24, 2024at VANVAN 3 − 2 OT
Feb 8, 2024at BOSBOS 4 − 0
Feb 25, 2023at VANBOS 3 − 1
Nov 13, 2022at BOSBOS 5 − 2
Dec 8, 2021at VANVAN 2 − 1 SO
Nov 28, 2021at BOSBOS 3 − 2

VAN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Dec 19, 2025at NYI4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Dec 14, 2025at NJ2 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs DET0 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs MIN4 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at COL1 − 3L
Nov 29, 2025at LA1 − 2L
Nov 28, 2025at SJ2 − 3L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 18, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Dec 16, 2025vs UTAH4 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025at MIN2 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025at WPG6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Dec 4, 2025vs STL5 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025at DET4 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025vs DET3 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025vs NYR2 − 6L