bayesRatings

Canucks at Devils

NHL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 11:30 AM CT · Prudential Center · Final VAN 2 – NJ 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
VAN2002
NJ0101
Team box
VAN·NJ
15
shots
26
2 of 3
power play
0 of 3
48.2
faceoff %
51.8
22
hits
18
16
blocked shots
11
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Zeev BuiumVAN112
Conor GarlandVAN021
Luke HughesNJ105
Jake DeBruskVAN104
Jesper BrattNJ014
Dawson MercerNJ011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Thatcher DemkoVAN2625.962
Jacob MarkstromNJ1513.867

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NJ +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NJ 0 · VAN 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 42%, NJ 58% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NJ 3.2 – 2.8 VAN
Expected total
5.9
CanucksThe matchupDevils
+138Our fair odds−138
2.8Expected goals3.2
−0.18Power rating−0.04
2.8Goals / game3.0
3.6Allowed / game3.2
27.1Shots / game29.4
48.5Faceoff %50.1
21.3Hits / game20.4
11−20Season record18−14
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · NJ chance
Our model fair42.0%58.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+13842%————
NJNew Jersey Devils−13858%————
Spreadabout even
VANVancouver Canucks+0.4our margin————
NJNew Jersey Devils−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 19%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 24%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 11%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 13%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 7%New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 2%New Jersey Devils by 6 goals: <1%
← VAN wins byNJ wins by →
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more34%
New Jersey Devils wins by 3 or more23%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANThatcher Demko G · last 5 starts: .879 save %, 3.00 GAAstarted
NJJacob Markstrom G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 2.99 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·NJ
Dec 11, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Dec 13, 2025 vs ANA
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
VAN·NJ
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
2.8
goals / game
3.0
3.6
goals allowed / game
3.2
11−20
season record
18−14
4−11
home record
10−6
7−9
away record
8−8
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
4−6
27.1
shots / game
29.4
48.5
faceoff %
50.1
21.3
hits / game
20.4
14.5
blocked shots / game
15.3
4.2
takeaways / game
4.9
14.7
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

VAN · NJ · 61 days
Vancouver CanucksNew Jersey Devils
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NJ 5−3
Mar 24, 2025at NJVAN 4 − 3 SO
Oct 30, 2024at VANNJ 6 − 0
Jan 6, 2024at NJVAN 6 − 4
Dec 5, 2023at VANNJ 6 − 5
Feb 6, 2023at NJNJ 5 − 4 OT
Nov 1, 2022at VANNJ 5 − 2
Mar 15, 2022at VANVAN 6 − 3
Feb 28, 2022at NJNJ 7 − 2

VAN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Dec 11, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs DET0 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs MIN4 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at COL1 − 3L
Nov 29, 2025at LA1 − 2L
Nov 28, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Nov 26, 2025at ANA5 − 4W
Nov 23, 2025vs CGY2 − 5L
Nov 20, 2025vs DAL2 − 4L

NJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 13, 2025vs ANA4 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs TB4 − 8L
Dec 9, 2025at OTT4 − 3W
Dec 6, 2025at BOS1 − 4L
Dec 5, 2025vs VGK0 − 3L
Dec 3, 2025vs DAL0 − 3L
Dec 1, 2025vs CBJ3 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025vs PHI3 − 5L
Nov 28, 2025at BUF5 − 0W
Nov 26, 2025vs STL3 − 2W