bayesRatings

Stars at Canucks

NHL · Thursday, Nov 20 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final DAL 4 – VAN 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DAL2024
VAN2002
Team box
DAL·VAN
24
shots
36
0 of 2
power play
1 of 5
38.6
faceoff %
61.4
21
hits
24
20
blocked shots
8
10
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jake OettingerDAL3634.944
Kevin LankinenVAN2420.833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
DAL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 0 · DAL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 52%, VAN 48% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DAL 3.2 – 3.0 VAN
Expected total
6.2
StarsThe matchupCanucks
−108Our fair odds+108
3.2Expected goals3.0
+0.23Power rating−0.09
3.3Goals / game3.2
2.9Allowed / game3.7
25.8Shots / game26.0
54.3Faceoff %46.6
21.1Hits / game21.8
12−8Season record9−12
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · VAN chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Stars−10852%————
VANVancouver Canucks+10848%————
Spreadabout even
DALDallas Stars−0.3our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 1%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 3%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 7%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 13%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 18%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 24%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%
← DAL wins byVAN wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more34%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more23%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DALJake Oettinger G · last 5 starts: .863 save %, 3.21 GAAstarted
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 3.19 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·VAN
Nov 18, 2025 vs NYI
last game
Nov 17, 2025 at FLA
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
DAL·VAN
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.3
goals / game
3.2
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.7
12−8
season record
9−12
6−5
home record
3−6
6−3
away record
6−6
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
25.8
shots / game
26.0
54.3
faceoff %
46.6
21.1
hits / game
21.8
15.4
blocked shots / game
16.5
4.0
takeaways / game
4.0
14.4
giveaways / game
15.0

Rating Trend

DAL · VAN · 38 days
Dallas StarsVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 6−4
Oct 16, 2025at DALVAN 5 − 3
Apr 8, 2025at DALVAN 6 − 5 OT
Mar 9, 2025at VANDAL 4 − 1
Jan 31, 2025at DALDAL 5 − 3
Mar 28, 2024at VANDAL 3 − 1
Dec 21, 2023at DALDAL 4 − 3 OT
Nov 4, 2023at VANVAN 2 − 0
Mar 25, 2023at DALVAN 3 − 1
Mar 14, 2023at VANVAN 5 − 2
Feb 27, 2023at DALVAN 5 − 4 OT

DAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 18, 2025vs NYI2 − 3L
Nov 15, 2025vs PHI5 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025at MTL7 − 0W
Nov 11, 2025at OTT3 − 2W
Nov 9, 2025vs SEA2 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at NSH5 − 4W
Nov 6, 2025vs ANA5 − 7L
Nov 4, 2025vs EDM4 − 3W
Nov 1, 2025at FLA3 − 4L
Oct 30, 2025at TB1 − 2L

VAN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 17, 2025at FLA5 − 8L
Nov 16, 2025at TB6 − 2W
Nov 14, 2025at CAR3 − 4L
Nov 11, 2025vs WPG3 − 5L
Nov 9, 2025vs COL4 − 5L
Nov 8, 2025vs CBJ4 − 3W
Nov 5, 2025vs CHI2 − 5L
Nov 3, 2025at NSH5 − 4W
Nov 1, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025at STL4 − 3W