bayesRatings

Canucks at Hurricanes

NHL · Friday, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final VAN 3 – CAR 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
VAN21003
CAR20114
Team box
VAN·CAR
17
shots
38
1 of 2
power play
1 of 2
48.4
faceoff %
51.6
25
hits
21
29
blocked shots
4
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Kevin LankinenVAN3834.895
Pyotr KochetkovCAR1714.824

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CAR 1 · VAN 1lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 36%, CAR 64% · Updated Nov 14, 2025

Expected margin
CAR by 1.1
Expected score
CAR 3.7 – 2.6 VAN
Expected total
6.3
CanucksThe matchupHurricanes
+181Our fair odds−181
2.6Expected goals3.7
−0.08Power rating+0.29
2.9Goals / game3.8
3.5Allowed / game2.9
27.6Shots / game33.2
45.9Faceoff %50.3
21.8Hits / game19.6
8−10Season record11−5
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · CAR chance
Our model fair35.6%64.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+18136%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−18164%————
SpreadCAR by 1.1
VANVancouver Canucks+1.1our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 1.1 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 2%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 6%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 6%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 20%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 18%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 13%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 17%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 11%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 4%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 7 goals: <1%
← VAN wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more47%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more34%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more15%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 3.42 GAAstarted
CARPyotr Kochetkov G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 2.81 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·CAR
Nov 11, 2025 vs WPG
last game
Nov 11, 2025 vs WSH
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
VAN·CAR
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
2.9
goals / game
3.8
3.5
goals allowed / game
2.9
8−10
season record
11−5
3−6
home record
5−2
5−4
away record
6−3
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
27.6
shots / game
33.2
45.9
faceoff %
50.3
21.8
hits / game
19.6
16.3
blocked shots / game
12.9
4.0
takeaways / game
5.3
15.3
giveaways / game
17.0

Rating Trend

VAN · CAR · 32 days
Vancouver CanucksCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CAR 4−4
Jan 10, 2025at CARCAR 2 − 0
Oct 28, 2024at VANCAR 4 − 3 OT
Feb 6, 2024at CARVAN 3 − 2
Dec 9, 2023at VANVAN 4 − 3
Jan 15, 2023at CARVAN 4 − 3 SO
Oct 24, 2022at VANCAR 3 − 2
Jan 15, 2022at CARCAR 4 − 1
Dec 12, 2021at VANVAN 2 − 1

VAN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Nov 11, 2025vs WPG3 − 5L
Nov 9, 2025vs COL4 − 5L
Nov 8, 2025vs CBJ4 − 3W
Nov 5, 2025vs CHI2 − 5L
Nov 3, 2025at NSH5 − 4W
Nov 1, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025at STL4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025vs NYR0 − 2L
Oct 26, 2025vs EDM4 − 3W
Oct 25, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 11, 2025vs WSH1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025vs MIN4 − 3W
Nov 4, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS1 − 2L
Oct 30, 2025vs NYI6 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025vs VGK3 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025at DAL2 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025at COL5 − 4W