bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Canucks

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 5 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final CHI 5 – VAN 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI0055
VAN0022
Team box
CHI·VAN
28
shots
45
1 of 1
power play
0 of 2
44.4
faceoff %
55.6
12
hits
18
8
blocked shots
15
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Tyler BertuzziCHI304
Connor BedardCHI115
Ryan DonatoCHI021
Evander KaneVAN1010
Ilya MikheyevCHI102
Aatu RatyVAN102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer KnightCHI4543.956
Kevin LankinenVAN2723.852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +4
CHI +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 0 · CHI 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 36%, VAN 64% · Updated Nov 5, 2025

Expected margin
VAN by 0.7
Expected score
VAN 3.4 – 2.7 CHI
Expected total
6.1
BlackhawksThe matchupCanucks
+177Our fair odds−177
2.7Expected goals3.4
−0.36Power rating−0.05
3.0Goals / game2.9
2.9Allowed / game3.2
25.2Shots / game25.8
47.7Faceoff %45.0
20.2Hits / game23.2
5−8Season record7−7
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · VAN chance
Our model fair36.1%63.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+17736%————
VANVancouver Canucks−17764%————
SpreadVAN by 0.7
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.7our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Vancouver Canucks by 0.7 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 4%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 8%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 8%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 16%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 26%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 11%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 14%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: 1%
← CHI wins byVAN wins by →
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more38%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 3 or more26%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 2.95 GAAstarted
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 3.53 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·VAN
Nov 3, 2025 at SEA
last game
Nov 3, 2025 at NSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
CHI·VAN
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.0
goals / game
2.9
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.2
5−8
season record
7−7
3−3
home record
2−3
2−5
away record
5−4
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
25.2
shots / game
25.8
47.7
faceoff %
45.0
20.2
hits / game
23.2
12.0
blocked shots / game
16.4
5.5
takeaways / game
3.9
16.6
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

CHI · VAN · 23 days
Chicago BlackhawksVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 10−0
Oct 17, 2025at CHIVAN 3 − 2 SO
Mar 15, 2025at VANVAN 6 − 2
Nov 16, 2024at VANVAN 4 − 1
Oct 22, 2024at CHIVAN 6 − 3
Feb 13, 2024at CHIVAN 4 − 2
Jan 22, 2024at VANVAN 2 − 0
Dec 17, 2023at CHIVAN 4 − 3
Apr 6, 2023at VANVAN 3 − 0
Mar 26, 2023at CHIVAN 4 − 2
Jan 24, 2023at VANVAN 5 − 2

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Nov 3, 2025at SEA1 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025at EDM2 − 3L
Oct 30, 2025at WPG3 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs OTT7 − 3W
Oct 26, 2025vs LA1 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025at TB3 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025vs ANA2 − 1W
Oct 17, 2025vs VAN2 − 3L
Oct 15, 2025at STL8 − 3W
Oct 13, 2025vs UTAH3 − 1W

VAN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 3, 2025at NSH5 − 4W
Nov 1, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025at STL4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025vs NYR0 − 2L
Oct 26, 2025vs EDM4 − 3W
Oct 25, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025at NSH1 − 2L
Oct 21, 2025at PIT1 − 5L
Oct 19, 2025at WSH4 − 3W
Oct 17, 2025at CHI3 − 2W