bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Lightning

NHL · Thursday, Oct 23 · 5:45 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final CHI 3 – TB 2
← NHL / Oct 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI1113
TB0202
Team box
CHI·TB
25
shots
31
1 of 5
power play
0 of 4
39.2
faceoff %
60.8
18
hits
18
15
blocked shots
7
8
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ryan DonatoCHI203
Frank NazarCHI114
Ryan McDonaghTB112
Nikita KucherovTB023
Teuvo TeravainenCHI021
Jake GuentzelTB102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer KnightCHI3129.935
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2522.880

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
CHI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 0 · CHI 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 31%, TB 69% · Updated Oct 23, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 1.6
Expected score
TB 4.1 – 2.5 CHI
Expected total
6.6
BlackhawksThe matchupLightning
+227Our fair odds−227
2.5Expected goals4.1
−0.43Power rating+0.15
3.1Goals / game2.7
2.6Allowed / game3.5
24.4Shots / game23.3
48.0Faceoff %42.2
21.3Hits / game21.3
3−4Season record1−5
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · TB chance
Our model fair30.6%69.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+22731%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−22769%————
SpreadTB by 1.6
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1.6our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.6 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 8 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 4%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 4%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 16%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 6%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 8 goals: <1%
← CHI wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more56%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more43%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more10%
Decided by one goal34%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .937 save %, 1.96 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .876 save %, 3.83 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·TB
Oct 19, 2025 vs ANA
last game
Oct 18, 2025 at CBJ
3 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
CHI·TB
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
3.1
goals / game
2.7
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.5
3−4
season record
1−5
2−2
home record
0−2
1−2
away record
1−3
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
2−8
24.4
shots / game
23.3
48.0
faceoff %
42.2
21.3
hits / game
21.3
11.9
blocked shots / game
15.7
6.1
takeaways / game
4.2
17.0
giveaways / game
18.0

Rating Trend

CHI · TB · 10 days
Chicago BlackhawksTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TB 6−2
Jan 28, 2025at TBCHI 4 − 1
Jan 24, 2025at CHITB 4 − 3 OT
Nov 16, 2023at CHITB 4 − 2
Nov 9, 2023at TBCHI 5 − 3
Mar 11, 2023at TBTB 3 − 1
Jan 3, 2023at CHITB 4 − 1
Apr 1, 2022at TBTB 5 − 2
Mar 6, 2022at CHITB 6 − 3

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 19, 2025vs ANA2 − 1W
Oct 17, 2025vs VAN2 − 3L
Oct 15, 2025at STL8 − 3W
Oct 13, 2025vs UTAH3 − 1W
Oct 11, 2025vs MTL2 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025at BOS3 − 4L
Oct 7, 2025at FLA2 − 3L
Apr 15, 2025at OTT4 − 3W
Apr 14, 2025at MTL4 − 3W
Apr 12, 2025vs WPG4 − 5L

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Oct 18, 2025at CBJ2 − 3L
Oct 17, 2025at DET1 − 2L
Oct 14, 2025at WSH2 − 3L
Oct 13, 2025at BOS4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025vs NJ3 − 5L
Oct 9, 2025vs OTT4 − 5L
Apr 30, 2025vs FLA3 − 6L
Apr 28, 2025at FLA2 − 4L
Apr 26, 2025at FLA5 − 1W
Apr 24, 2025vs FLA0 − 2L