bayesRatings

Lightning at Capitals

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 14 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final TB 2 – WSH 3
← NHL / Oct 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
TB10102
WSH01113
Team box
TB·WSH
19
shots
28
1 of 2
power play
1 of 3
46.4
faceoff %
53.6
8
hits
23
17
blocked shots
8
10
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Tom WilsonWSH123
Dylan StromeWSH022
Jakob ChychrunWSH104
Aliaksei ProtasWSH103
Jake GuentzelTB102
Brayden PointTB102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2825.893
Logan ThompsonWSH1917.895

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
TB +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: WSH 1 · TB 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 44%, WSH 56% · Updated Oct 14, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.1 – 3.1 TB
Expected total
6.2
LightningThe matchupCapitals
+125Our fair odds−125
3.1Expected goals3.1
+0.19Power rating+0.18
3.7Goals / game2.0
4.3Allowed / game1.7
21.7Shots / game28.7
39.9Faceoff %44.1
28.7Hits / game28.0
1−2Season record2−1
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · WSH chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning+12544%————
WSHWashington Capitals−12556%————
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Lightning+0.1our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 6%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 10%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 16%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 26%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 6%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%
← TB wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more29%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more19%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .880 save %, 3.71 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.84 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·WSH
Oct 13, 2025 at BOS
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at NYR
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
TB·WSH
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
3.7
goals / game
2.0
4.3
goals allowed / game
1.7
1−2
season record
2−1
0−2
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
2−0
W1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
21.7
shots / game
28.7
39.9
faceoff %
44.1
28.7
hits / game
28.0
16.3
blocked shots / game
16.3
5.3
takeaways / game
4.0
17.7
giveaways / game
16.7

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Mar 1, 2025at WSHTB 3 − 1
Nov 27, 2024at TBWSH 5 − 4
Oct 26, 2024at TBTB 3 − 0
Apr 13, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 2
Feb 22, 2024at TBWSH 5 − 3
Dec 23, 2023at WSHTB 2 − 1 SO
Mar 30, 2023at TBTB 5 − 1
Nov 13, 2022at TBTB 6 − 3
Nov 11, 2022at WSHWSH 5 − 1
Apr 6, 2022at WSHWSH 4 − 3

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 13, 2025at BOS4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025vs NJ3 − 5L
Oct 9, 2025vs OTT4 − 5L
Apr 30, 2025vs FLA3 − 6L
Apr 28, 2025at FLA2 − 4L
Apr 26, 2025at FLA5 − 1W
Apr 24, 2025vs FLA0 − 2L
Apr 22, 2025vs FLA2 − 6L
Apr 17, 2025at NYR0 − 4L
Apr 15, 2025vs FLA5 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 12, 2025at NYR1 − 0W
Oct 11, 2025at NYI4 − 2W
Oct 8, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L
May 15, 2025vs CAR1 − 3L
May 12, 2025at CAR2 − 5L
May 10, 2025at CAR0 − 4L
May 8, 2025vs CAR3 − 1W
May 6, 2025vs CAR1 − 2L
Apr 30, 2025vs MTL4 − 1W
Apr 27, 2025at MTL5 − 2W