bayesRatings

Capitals at Rangers

NHL · Sunday, Oct 12 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final WSH 1 – NYR 0
← NHL / Oct 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH0101
NYR0000
Team box
WSH·NYR
21
shots
35
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
34.7
faceoff %
65.3
26
hits
18
18
blocked shots
16
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Anthony BeauvillierWSH104
Alex OvechkinWSH013
Declan ChisholmWSH010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Charlie LindgrenWSH35351.000
Jonathan QuickNYR2120.952

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 0 · WSH 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, NYR 54% · Updated Oct 12, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.2 – 3.0 WSH
Expected total
6.2
CapitalsThe matchupRangers
+118Our fair odds−118
3.0Expected goals3.2
+0.20Power rating+0.08
2.5Goals / game3.3
2.5Allowed / game1.3
32.5Shots / game29.3
48.8Faceoff %53.5
29.0Hits / game30.7
1−1Season record2−1
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · NYR chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals+11846%————
NYRNew York Rangers−11854%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals+0.3our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 5%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 9%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 9%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 21%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 21%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 13%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more33%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more23%
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHCharlie Lindgren G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 3.15 GAAstarted
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .880 save %, 3.45 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·NYR
Oct 11, 2025 at NYI
last game
Oct 11, 2025 at PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
WSH·NYR
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
2.5
goals / game
3.3
2.5
goals allowed / game
1.3
1−1
season record
2−1
0−1
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
2−0
W1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
32.5
shots / game
29.3
48.8
faceoff %
53.5
29.0
hits / game
30.7
15.5
blocked shots / game
15.0
4.5
takeaways / game
5.7
16.0
giveaways / game
16.7

Rating Trend

WSH · NYR · 5 days
Washington CapitalsNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 6−4
Mar 5, 2025at NYRWSH 3 − 2 OT
Jan 4, 2025at WSHWSH 7 − 4
Oct 29, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 3
Apr 28, 2024at WSHNYR 4 − 2post
Apr 26, 2024at WSHNYR 3 − 1post
Apr 23, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 3post
Apr 21, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 1post
Jan 14, 2024at NYRNYR 2 − 1
Jan 13, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 2
Dec 27, 2023at NYRNYR 5 − 1

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 11, 2025at NYI4 − 2W
Oct 8, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L
May 15, 2025vs CAR1 − 3L
May 12, 2025at CAR2 − 5L
May 10, 2025at CAR0 − 4L
May 8, 2025vs CAR3 − 1W
May 6, 2025vs CAR1 − 2L
Apr 30, 2025vs MTL4 − 1W
Apr 27, 2025at MTL5 − 2W
Apr 25, 2025at MTL3 − 6L

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 11, 2025at PIT6 − 1W
Oct 9, 2025at BUF4 − 0W
Oct 7, 2025vs PIT0 − 3L
Apr 17, 2025vs TB4 − 0W
Apr 14, 2025at FLA5 − 3W
Apr 12, 2025at CAR3 − 7L
Apr 10, 2025at NYI9 − 2W
Apr 9, 2025vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 7, 2025vs TB1 − 5L
Apr 5, 2025at NJ0 − 4L