bayesRatings

Lightning at Red Wings

NHL · Friday, Oct 17 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final TB 1 – DET 2
← NHL / Oct 17, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
TB00101
DET10012
Team box
TB·DET
32
shots
31
0 of 3
power play
0 of 3
44.1
faceoff %
55.9
20
hits
27
13
blocked shots
22
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Dylan LarkinDET114
Axel Sandin-PellikkaDET102
J.J. MoserTB102
J.T. CompherDET011
Victor HedmanTB011
Conor GeekieTB011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB3129.935
John GibsonDET3231.969

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
TB +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: DET 1 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 49%, DET 51% · Updated Oct 17, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 3.5 – 3.2 DET
Expected total
6.7
LightningThe matchupRed Wings
+103Our fair odds−103
3.5Expected goals3.2
+0.19Power rating−0.02
3.2Goals / game3.5
4.0Allowed / game2.8
21.0Shots / game26.5
41.5Faceoff %51.1
23.5Hits / game20.5
1−3Season record3−1
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · DET chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning+10349%————
DETDetroit Red Wings−10351%————
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.3our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 7%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 16%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 24%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 9%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 5%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%
← TB wins byDET wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more35%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more25%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .861 save %, 4.11 GAAstarted
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 3.39 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·DET
Oct 14, 2025 at WSH
last game
Oct 15, 2025 vs FLA
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
TB·DET
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.2
goals / game
3.5
4.0
goals allowed / game
2.8
1−3
season record
3−1
0−2
home record
2−1
1−1
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
6−4
21.0
shots / game
26.5
41.5
faceoff %
51.1
23.5
hits / game
20.5
16.5
blocked shots / game
17.0
4.5
takeaways / game
5.5
18.0
giveaways / game
17.5

Rating Trend

TB · DET · 4 days
Tampa Bay LightningDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Apr 11, 2025at TBDET 4 − 3 OT
Feb 8, 2025at DETTB 6 − 3
Jan 25, 2025at DETDET 2 − 0
Jan 18, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Apr 1, 2024at TBDET 4 − 2
Jan 21, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1
Oct 14, 2023at DETDET 6 − 4
Apr 13, 2023at TBTB 5 − 0
Feb 25, 2023at DETTB 3 − 0
Dec 21, 2022at DETDET 7 − 4

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 14, 2025at WSH2 − 3L
Oct 13, 2025at BOS4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025vs NJ3 − 5L
Oct 9, 2025vs OTT4 − 5L
Apr 30, 2025vs FLA3 − 6L
Apr 28, 2025at FLA2 − 4L
Apr 26, 2025at FLA5 − 1W
Apr 24, 2025vs FLA0 − 2L
Apr 22, 2025vs FLA2 − 6L
Apr 17, 2025at NYR0 − 4L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 15, 2025vs FLA4 − 1W
Oct 13, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025vs TOR6 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025vs MTL1 − 5L
Apr 17, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Apr 16, 2025at NJ5 − 2W
Apr 14, 2025vs DAL6 − 4W
Apr 11, 2025at TB4 − 3W
Apr 10, 2025at FLA1 − 4L
Apr 8, 2025at MTL1 − 4L