bayesRatings

Oilers at Canucks

NHL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final EDM 3 – VAN 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
EDM01203
VAN12014
Team box
EDM·VAN
29
shots
27
1 of 2
power play
1 of 2
40.7
faceoff %
59.3
19
hits
14
13
blocked shots
18
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Calvin PickardEDM2723.852
Thatcher DemkoVAN2926.897

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
EDM +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: VAN 2 · EDM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was EDM 48%, VAN 52% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
VAN 3.0 – 2.9 EDM
Expected total
5.9
OilersThe matchupCanucks
+109Our fair odds−109
2.9Expected goals3.0
+0.21Power rating+0.04
2.9Goals / game2.8
3.1Allowed / game3.1
29.1Shots / game25.4
52.6Faceoff %42.3
17.0Hits / game25.2
4−5Season record4−5
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
EDM chance · VAN chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
EDMEdmonton Oilers+10948%————
VANVancouver Canucks−10952%————
Spreadabout even
EDMEdmonton Oilers+0.1our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: <1%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 2%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 5%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 10%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 9%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 21%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 23%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 10%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 11%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 6%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 2%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%
← EDM wins byVAN wins by →
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more29%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 3 or more19%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
EDMCalvin Pickard G · last 5 starts: .857 save %, 3.14 GAAstarted
VANThatcher Demko G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 2.24 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
EDM·VAN
Oct 25, 2025 at SEA
last game
Oct 25, 2025 vs MTL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
EDM·VAN
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
2.9
goals / game
2.8
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
4−5
season record
4−5
2−1
home record
1−2
2−4
away record
3−3
L1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
4−6
29.1
shots / game
25.4
52.6
faceoff %
42.3
17.0
hits / game
25.2
16.7
blocked shots / game
16.9
4.2
takeaways / game
3.6
17.4
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

EDM · VAN · 13 days
Edmonton OilersVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 3−7
Oct 11, 2025at EDMEDM 3 − 1
Jan 23, 2025at EDMEDM 6 − 2
Jan 18, 2025at VANVAN 3 − 2
Nov 9, 2024at VANEDM 7 − 3
May 20, 2024at VANEDM 3 − 2post
May 18, 2024at EDMEDM 5 − 1post
May 16, 2024at VANVAN 3 − 2post
May 14, 2024at EDMEDM 3 − 2post
May 12, 2024at EDMVAN 4 − 3post
May 10, 2024at VANEDM 4 − 3 OTpost

EDM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 25, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025vs MTL6 − 5W
Oct 21, 2025at OTT3 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025at DET2 − 4L
Oct 18, 2025at NJ3 − 5L
Oct 16, 2025at NYI2 − 4L
Oct 14, 2025at NYR2 − 0W
Oct 11, 2025vs VAN3 − 1W
Oct 8, 2025vs CGY3 − 4L
Jun 17, 2025at FLA1 − 5L

VAN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 25, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025at NSH1 − 2L
Oct 21, 2025at PIT1 − 5L
Oct 19, 2025at WSH4 − 3W
Oct 17, 2025at CHI3 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025at DAL5 − 3W
Oct 13, 2025vs STL2 − 5L
Oct 11, 2025at EDM1 − 3L
Oct 9, 2025vs CGY5 − 1W
Apr 16, 2025vs VGK1 − 4L