bayesRatings

Oilers at Rangers

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 14 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final EDM 2 – NYR 0
← NHL / Oct 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
EDM0112
NYR0000
Team box
EDM·NYR
22
shots
30
0 of 0
power play
0 of 3
53.5
faceoff %
46.5
12
hits
18
23
blocked shots
11
6
penalty minutes
0
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Trent FredericEDM102
Adam HenriqueEDM101
Connor McDavidEDM012
Kasperi KapanenEDM011
Andrew MangiapaneEDM010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Stuart SkinnerEDM30301.000
Igor ShesterkinNYR2120.952

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
EDM +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 0 · EDM 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was EDM 48%, NYR 52% · Updated Oct 14, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.1 – 2.9 EDM
Expected total
6.0
OilersThe matchupRangers
+106Our fair odds−106
2.9Expected goals3.1
+0.26Power rating+0.09
3.0Goals / game2.5
2.5Allowed / game1.2
36.0Shots / game30.8
52.0Faceoff %56.5
22.5Hits / game27.5
1−1Season record2−2
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
EDM chance · NYR chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
EDMEdmonton Oilers+10648%————
NYRNew York Rangers−10652%————
Spreadabout even
EDMEdmonton Oilers+0.2our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: <1%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 1%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 5%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 10%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 9%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 23%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 20%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← EDM wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more32%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more22%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
EDMStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .866 save %, 3.43 GAAstarted
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .949 save %, 1.41 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
EDM·NYR
Oct 11, 2025 vs VAN
last game
Oct 12, 2025 vs WSH
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
EDM·NYR
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
3.0
goals / game
2.5
2.5
goals allowed / game
1.2
1−1
season record
2−2
1−1
home record
0−2
0−0
away record
2−0
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
36.0
shots / game
30.8
52.0
faceoff %
56.5
22.5
hits / game
27.5
15.5
blocked shots / game
15.2
2.5
takeaways / game
5.8
16.5
giveaways / game
16.5

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NYR 3−5
Mar 16, 2025at NYREDM 3 − 1
Nov 23, 2024at EDMEDM 6 − 2
Dec 22, 2023at NYREDM 4 − 3
Oct 26, 2023at EDMNYR 3 − 0
Feb 17, 2023at EDMNYR 5 − 4 SO
Nov 26, 2022at NYREDM 4 − 3
Jan 3, 2022at NYRNYR 4 − 1
Nov 5, 2021at EDMEDM 6 − 5 OT

EDM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 11, 2025vs VAN3 − 1W
Oct 8, 2025vs CGY3 − 4L
Jun 17, 2025at FLA1 − 5L
Jun 14, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Jun 12, 2025at FLA5 − 4W
Jun 9, 2025at FLA1 − 6L
Jun 6, 2025vs FLA4 − 5L
Jun 4, 2025vs FLA4 − 3W
May 29, 2025at DAL6 − 3W
May 27, 2025vs DAL4 − 1W

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 12, 2025vs WSH0 − 1L
Oct 11, 2025at PIT6 − 1W
Oct 9, 2025at BUF4 − 0W
Oct 7, 2025vs PIT0 − 3L
Apr 17, 2025vs TB4 − 0W
Apr 14, 2025at FLA5 − 3W
Apr 12, 2025at CAR3 − 7L
Apr 10, 2025at NYI9 − 2W
Apr 9, 2025vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 7, 2025vs TB1 − 5L