bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Kraken

NHL · Monday, Nov 3 · 9:00 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · Final CHI 1 – SEA 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI0011
SEA0213
Team box
CHI·SEA
30
shots
24
0 of 3
power play
1 of 2
57.9
faceoff %
42.1
12
hits
20
11
blocked shots
19
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Arvid SoderblomCHI2421.875
Joey DaccordSEA3029.967

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
CHI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: SEA 2 · CHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 37%, SEA 63% · Updated Nov 3, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 0.7
Expected score
SEA 3.4 – 2.6 CHI
Expected total
6.0
BlackhawksThe matchupKraken
+172Our fair odds−172
2.6Expected goals3.4
−0.36Power rating−0.06
3.2Goals / game2.7
2.9Allowed / game2.9
24.8Shots / game23.9
46.9Faceoff %44.5
20.8Hits / game21.5
5−7Season record5−6
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · SEA chance
Our model fair36.7%63.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+17237%————
SEASeattle Kraken−17263%————
SpreadSEA by 0.7
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.7our margin————
SEASeattle Kraken−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Kraken by 0.7 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 3%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 8%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 8%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 17%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 25%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 12%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 15%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 8%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 3%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: 1%
← CHI wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more38%
Seattle Kraken wins by 3 or more27%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHIArvid Soderblom G · last 5 starts: .896 save %, 2.76 GAAstarted
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .896 save %, 2.98 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·SEA
Nov 1, 2025 at EDM
last game
Nov 1, 2025 vs NYR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
CHI·SEA
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.2
goals / game
2.7
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.9
5−7
season record
5−6
3−3
home record
3−2
2−4
away record
2−4
L2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
24.8
shots / game
23.9
46.9
faceoff %
44.5
20.8
hits / game
21.5
12.1
blocked shots / game
17.7
5.8
takeaways / game
4.7
16.2
giveaways / game
17.8

Rating Trend

CHI · SEA · 21 days
Chicago BlackhawksSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 7−3
Mar 18, 2025at CHISEA 6 − 2
Dec 19, 2024at CHICHI 3 − 1
Nov 14, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 1
Jan 24, 2024at SEASEA 6 − 2
Dec 14, 2023at SEASEA 7 − 1
Nov 28, 2023at CHICHI 4 − 3
Apr 8, 2023at SEASEA 7 − 3
Jan 14, 2023at CHISEA 8 − 5
Oct 23, 2022at CHICHI 5 − 4
Apr 7, 2022at CHISEA 2 − 0

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 1, 2025at EDM2 − 3L
Oct 30, 2025at WPG3 − 6L
Oct 28, 2025vs OTT7 − 3W
Oct 26, 2025vs LA1 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025at TB3 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025vs ANA2 − 1W
Oct 17, 2025vs VAN2 − 3L
Oct 15, 2025at STL8 − 3W
Oct 13, 2025vs UTAH3 − 1W
Oct 11, 2025vs MTL2 − 3L

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Nov 1, 2025vs NYR2 − 3L
Oct 28, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L
Oct 25, 2025vs EDM3 − 2W
Oct 23, 2025at WPG3 − 0W
Oct 21, 2025at WSH1 − 4L
Oct 20, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Oct 18, 2025at TOR4 − 3W
Oct 16, 2025at OTT3 − 4L
Oct 14, 2025at MTL4 − 5L
Oct 11, 2025vs VGK2 − 1W