bayesRatings

Canucks at Blues

NHL · Thursday, Oct 30 · 7:00 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final VAN 4 – STL 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
VAN111014
STL111003
Team box
VAN·STL
18
shots
39
1 of 3
power play
2 of 3
51.9
faceoff %
48.1
21
hits
17
16
blocked shots
14
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Kevin LankinenVAN3936.923
Jordan BinningtonSTL1815.833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: STL 1 · VAN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 43%, STL 57% · Updated Oct 30, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 3.3 – 2.9 VAN
Expected total
6.2
CanucksThe matchupBlues
+135Our fair odds−135
2.9Expected goals3.3
−0.02Power rating+0.03
2.6Goals / game2.9
3.0Allowed / game4.4
25.4Shots / game25.5
44.1Faceoff %50.1
23.6Hits / game26.0
5−6Season record3−7
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · STL chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+13543%————
STLSt. Louis Blues−13557%————
Spreadabout even
VANVancouver Canucks+0.4our margin————
STLSt. Louis Blues−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 9%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 19%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 23%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 11%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 13%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 7%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 3%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: 1%
← VAN wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more34%
St. Louis Blues wins by 3 or more23%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .884 save %, 3.42 GAAstarted
STLJordan Binnington G · last 5 starts: .865 save %, 3.11 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·STL
Oct 28, 2025 vs NYR
last game
Oct 28, 2025 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
VAN·STL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
2.6
goals / game
2.9
3.0
goals allowed / game
4.4
5−6
season record
3−7
2−3
home record
1−5
3−3
away record
2−2
L1
streak
L5
4−6
last 10
3−7
25.4
shots / game
25.5
44.1
faceoff %
50.1
23.6
hits / game
26.0
16.4
blocked shots / game
12.6
3.9
takeaways / game
4.6
15.5
giveaways / game
14.2

Rating Trend

VAN · STL · 17 days
Vancouver CanucksSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 7−3
Oct 13, 2025at VANSTL 5 − 2
Mar 20, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 3 OT
Jan 27, 2025at STLVAN 5 − 2
Dec 10, 2024at VANSTL 4 − 3 OT
Jan 24, 2024at VANSTL 4 − 3 OT
Jan 4, 2024at STLSTL 2 − 1
Oct 27, 2023at VANVAN 5 − 0
Mar 28, 2023at STLSTL 6 − 5 OT
Feb 23, 2023at STLVAN 3 − 2 OT
Dec 19, 2022at VANSTL 5 − 1

VAN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 28, 2025vs NYR0 − 2L
Oct 26, 2025vs EDM4 − 3W
Oct 25, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025at NSH1 − 2L
Oct 21, 2025at PIT1 − 5L
Oct 19, 2025at WSH4 − 3W
Oct 17, 2025at CHI3 − 2W
Oct 16, 2025at DAL5 − 3W
Oct 13, 2025vs STL2 − 5L
Oct 11, 2025at EDM1 − 3L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Oct 28, 2025vs DET2 − 5L
Oct 27, 2025at PIT3 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025at DET4 − 6L
Oct 23, 2025vs UTAH4 − 7L
Oct 21, 2025vs LA1 − 2L
Oct 18, 2025vs DAL3 − 1W
Oct 15, 2025vs CHI3 − 8L
Oct 13, 2025at VAN5 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025at CGY4 − 2W
Oct 9, 2025vs MIN0 − 5L