bayesRatings

Red Wings at Blues

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 28 · 7:15 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final DET 5 – STL 2
← NHL / Oct 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DET2215
STL1012
Team box
DET·STL
20
shots
22
1 of 2
power play
0 of 2
60.0
faceoff %
40.0
15
hits
31
14
blocked shots
11
9
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Dylan LarkinDET213
Alex DeBrincatDET113
Lucas RaymondDET022
Philip BrobergSTL022
Jordan KyrouSTL103
Elmer SoderblomDET102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
John GibsonDET2220.909
Jordan BinningtonSTL1915.789

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
DET +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: STL 1 · DET 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 43%, STL 57% · Updated Oct 28, 2025

Expected margin
STL by 0.5
Expected score
STL 3.5 – 3.0 DET
Expected total
6.4
Red WingsThe matchupBlues
+131Our fair odds−131
3.0Expected goals3.5
+0.01Power rating+0.03
3.3Goals / game3.0
3.2Allowed / game4.3
28.3Shots / game25.9
51.8Faceoff %51.2
21.6Hits / game25.4
6−3Season record3−6
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · STL chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+13143%————
STLSt. Louis Blues−13157%————
SpreadSTL by 0.5
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.5our margin————
STLSt. Louis Blues−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

St. Louis Blues by 0.5 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 4%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 9%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 21%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 20%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 11%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 14%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 8%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 3%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: 1%
← DET wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more37%
St. Louis Blues wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .870 save %, 3.46 GAAstarted
STLJordan Binnington G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 2.67 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·STL
Oct 25, 2025 vs STL
last game
Oct 27, 2025 at PIT
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
DET·STL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
3.3
goals / game
3.0
3.2
goals allowed / game
4.3
6−3
season record
3−6
5−1
home record
1−4
1−2
away record
2−2
W1
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
28.3
shots / game
25.9
51.8
faceoff %
51.2
21.6
hits / game
25.4
16.2
blocked shots / game
12.8
4.3
takeaways / game
4.8
15.7
giveaways / game
14.3

Rating Trend

DET · STL · 15 days
Detroit Red WingsSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · STL 4−5
Oct 25, 2025at DETDET 6 − 4
Apr 1, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1 OT
Dec 23, 2024at DETSTL 4 − 0
Feb 24, 2024at DETDET 6 − 1
Dec 12, 2023at STLDET 6 − 4
Mar 23, 2023at DETSTL 4 − 3
Mar 21, 2023at STLDET 3 − 2 SO
Dec 9, 2021at STLSTL 6 − 2
Nov 24, 2021at DETDET 4 − 2

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 25, 2025vs STL6 − 4W
Oct 23, 2025at NYI2 − 7L
Oct 22, 2025at BUF2 − 4L
Oct 19, 2025vs EDM4 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025vs TB2 − 1W
Oct 15, 2025vs FLA4 − 1W
Oct 13, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025vs TOR6 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025vs MTL1 − 5L
Apr 17, 2025at TOR3 − 4L

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Oct 27, 2025at PIT3 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025at DET4 − 6L
Oct 23, 2025vs UTAH4 − 7L
Oct 21, 2025vs LA1 − 2L
Oct 18, 2025vs DAL3 − 1W
Oct 15, 2025vs CHI3 − 8L
Oct 13, 2025at VAN5 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025at CGY4 − 2W
Oct 9, 2025vs MIN0 − 5L
May 4, 2025at WPG3 − 4L