bayesRatings

Wild at Hurricanes

NHL · Thursday, Nov 6 · 6:00 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final MIN 3 – CAR 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MIN2103
CAR3104
Team box
MIN·CAR
24
shots
27
1 of 3
power play
0 of 2
47.1
faceoff %
52.9
35
hits
19
17
blocked shots
11
12
penalty minutes
23
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Matt BoldyMIN203
Sean WalkerCAR111
Jackson BlakeCAR111
Andrei SvechnikovCAR105
Nikolaj EhlersCAR104
Brock FaberMIN101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Filip GustavssonMIN2723.852
Frederik AndersenCAR2421.875

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +3
MIN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CAR 1 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 36%, CAR 64% · Updated Nov 6, 2025

Expected margin
CAR by 1.1
Expected score
CAR 3.6 – 2.5 MIN
Expected total
6.1
WildThe matchupHurricanes
+180Our fair odds−180
2.5Expected goals3.6
−0.10Power rating+0.23
2.9Goals / game3.7
3.6Allowed / game2.7
29.6Shots / game32.7
47.9Faceoff %50.4
22.6Hits / game19.6
5−9Season record8−4
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CAR chance
Our model fair35.7%64.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Wild+18036%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−18064%————
SpreadCAR by 1.1
MINMinnesota Wild+1.1our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 1.1 expected
Minnesota Wild by 7 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 2%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 5%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 6%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 21%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 18%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 13%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 18%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 11%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 4%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 7 goals: <1%
← MIN wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more47%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more34%
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.555%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MINFilip Gustavsson G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 3.19 GAAstarted
CARFrederik Andersen G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.99 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CAR
Nov 4, 2025 vs NSH
last game
Nov 4, 2025 at NYR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
MIN·CAR
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
2.9
goals / game
3.7
3.6
goals allowed / game
2.7
5−9
season record
8−4
3−5
home record
3−1
2−4
away record
5−3
W2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
29.6
shots / game
32.7
47.9
faceoff %
50.4
22.6
hits / game
19.6
15.0
blocked shots / game
13.6
3.9
takeaways / game
4.8
14.3
giveaways / game
16.9

Rating Trend

MIN · CAR · 24 days
Minnesota WildCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CAR 2−6
Feb 6, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1
Jan 4, 2025at CARMIN 4 − 0
Feb 27, 2024at MINCAR 3 − 2
Jan 21, 2024at CARMIN 5 − 2
Jan 19, 2023at CARCAR 5 − 2
Nov 19, 2022at MINMIN 2 − 1 OT
Apr 2, 2022at CARMIN 3 − 1
Feb 12, 2022at MINMIN 3 − 2

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Nov 4, 2025vs NSH3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025vs VAN5 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025vs PIT1 − 4L
Oct 28, 2025vs WPG3 − 4L
Oct 26, 2025vs SJ5 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025vs UTAH2 − 6L
Oct 22, 2025at NJ1 − 4L
Oct 20, 2025at NYR3 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Oct 17, 2025at WSH1 − 5L

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 4, 2025at NYR3 − 0W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS1 − 2L
Oct 30, 2025vs NYI6 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025vs VGK3 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025at DAL2 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025at COL5 − 4W
Oct 20, 2025at VGK1 − 4L
Oct 18, 2025at LA4 − 3W
Oct 16, 2025at ANA4 − 1W
Oct 14, 2025at SJ5 − 1W