bayesRatings

Jets at Wild

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM CT · Grand Casino Arena · Final WPG 4 – MIN 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
WPG20114
MIN02103
Team box
WPG·MIN
21
shots
35
0 of 1
power play
1 of 4
52.7
faceoff %
47.3
24
hits
28
17
blocked shots
10
13
penalty minutes
7
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Brock FaberMIN117
Marco RossiMIN022
Mark ScheifeleWPG022
Logan StanleyWPG021
Kyle ConnorWPG104
Kirill KaprizovMIN103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Connor HellebuyckWPG3532.914
Filip GustavssonMIN2117.810

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
WPG +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: MIN 1 · WPG 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WPG 54%, MIN 46% · Updated Oct 28, 2025

Expected margin
WPG by 0.8
Expected score
WPG 3.2 – 2.5 MIN
Expected total
5.7
JetsThe matchupWild
−119Our fair odds+119
3.2Expected goals2.5
+0.34Power rating−0.09
3.3Goals / game2.8
2.4Allowed / game3.9
26.4Shots / game30.1
53.3Faceoff %49.0
21.9Hits / game21.7
6−3Season record3−7
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WPG chance · MIN chance
Our model fair54.4%45.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WPGWinnipeg Jets−11954%————
MINMinnesota Wild+11946%————
SpreadWPG by 0.8
WPGWinnipeg Jets−0.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Wild+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Winnipeg Jets by 0.8 expected
Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: 1%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 3%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 9%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 16%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 12%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 18%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 24%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 7%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 6%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 3%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%
← WPG wins byMIN wins by →
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more42%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WPGConnor Hellebuyck G · last 5 starts: .942 save %, 1.61 GAAstarted
MINFilip Gustavsson G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 3.46 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WPG·MIN
Oct 26, 2025 vs UTAH
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs SJ
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
WPG·MIN
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.3
goals / game
2.8
2.4
goals allowed / game
3.9
6−3
season record
3−7
3−3
home record
1−3
3−0
away record
2−4
L1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
3−7
26.4
shots / game
30.1
53.3
faceoff %
49.0
21.9
hits / game
21.7
16.0
blocked shots / game
15.4
4.0
takeaways / game
3.8
16.3
giveaways / game
13.8

Rating Trend

WPG · MIN · 15 days
Winnipeg JetsMinnesota Wild
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 2−8
Dec 21, 2024at WPGWPG 5 − 0
Nov 25, 2024at MINWPG 4 − 1
Oct 13, 2024at WPGWPG 2 − 1 OT
Apr 6, 2024at MINWPG 4 − 2
Feb 20, 2024at WPGWPG 6 − 3
Dec 31, 2023at MINWPG 3 − 2
Dec 30, 2023at WPGWPG 4 − 2
Apr 11, 2023at MINWPG 3 − 1
Mar 8, 2023at WPGMIN 4 − 2
Dec 27, 2022at WPGMIN 4 − 1

WPG · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 26, 2025vs UTAH2 − 3L
Oct 24, 2025vs CGY5 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025vs SEA0 − 3L
Oct 20, 2025at CGY2 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025vs NSH4 − 1W
Oct 16, 2025at PHI5 − 2W
Oct 13, 2025at NYI5 − 2W
Oct 11, 2025vs LA3 − 2W
Oct 9, 2025vs DAL4 − 5L
May 17, 2025at DAL1 − 2L

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 26, 2025vs SJ5 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025vs UTAH2 − 6L
Oct 22, 2025at NJ1 − 4L
Oct 20, 2025at NYR3 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Oct 17, 2025at WSH1 − 5L
Oct 14, 2025at DAL2 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs LA4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025vs CBJ4 − 7L
Oct 9, 2025at STL5 − 0W