bayesRatings

Mammoth at Wild

NHL · Saturday, Oct 25 · 5:00 PM CT · Grand Casino Arena · Final UTAH 6 – MIN 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
UTAH3036
MIN1102
Team box
UTAH·MIN
41
shots
35
1 of 1
power play
1 of 4
48.4
faceoff %
51.6
12
hits
32
21
blocked shots
9
10
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Logan CooleyUTAH215
John MarinoUTAH121
Nick SchmaltzUTAH206
Marcus JohanssonMIN203
Mikhail SergachevUTAH020
JJ PeterkaUTAH102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Karel VejmelkaUTAH3533.943
Filip GustavssonMIN4035.875

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +4
UTAH +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: MIN 0 · UTAH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 45%, MIN 55% · Updated Oct 25, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
UTAH 2.8 – 2.8 MIN
Expected total
5.6
MammothThe matchupWild
+124Our fair odds−124
2.8Expected goals2.8
+0.02Power rating−0.02
3.5Goals / game2.6
2.5Allowed / game3.4
28.6Shots / game29.1
45.4Faceoff %48.8
20.1Hits / game21.0
6−2Season record3−5
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · MIN chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+12445%————
MINMinnesota Wild−12455%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Wild+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 6%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 12%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 17%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 27%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 9%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 10%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 4%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byMIN wins by →
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more31%
Utah Mammoth wins by 3 or more20%
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 2.58 GAAstarted
MINFilip Gustavsson G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 3.65 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·MIN
Oct 23, 2025 at STL
last game
Oct 22, 2025 at NJ
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
UTAH·MIN
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.5
goals / game
2.6
2.5
goals allowed / game
3.4
6−2
season record
3−5
4−0
home record
1−1
2−2
away record
2−4
W5
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
28.6
shots / game
29.1
45.4
faceoff %
48.8
20.1
hits / game
21.0
14.8
blocked shots / game
16.6
2.9
takeaways / game
3.9
19.8
giveaways / game
12.9

Rating Trend

UTAH · MIN · 12 days
Utah MammothMinnesota Wild
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 4 meetings · MIN 1−3
Feb 27, 2025at UTAHUTAH 6 − 1
Jan 23, 2025at MINUTAH 4 − 0
Dec 20, 2024at MINUTAH 2 − 1
Dec 10, 2024at UTAHMIN 5 − 4 SO

UTAH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Oct 23, 2025at STL7 − 4W
Oct 21, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Oct 19, 2025vs BOS3 − 2W
Oct 17, 2025vs SJ6 − 3W
Oct 15, 2025vs CGY3 − 1W
Oct 13, 2025at CHI1 − 3L
Oct 11, 2025at NSH3 − 2W
Oct 9, 2025at COL1 − 2L
Apr 15, 2025at STL1 − 6L
Apr 14, 2025at NSH7 − 3W

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 22, 2025at NJ1 − 4L
Oct 20, 2025at NYR3 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Oct 17, 2025at WSH1 − 5L
Oct 14, 2025at DAL2 − 5L
Oct 13, 2025vs LA4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025vs CBJ4 − 7L
Oct 9, 2025at STL5 − 0W
May 1, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Apr 29, 2025at VGK2 − 3L