bayesRatings

Islanders at Hurricanes

NHL · Thursday, Oct 30 · 6:30 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final NYI 2 – CAR 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI1012
CAR3036
Team box
NYI·CAR
28
shots
34
1 of 4
power play
0 of 1
61.3
faceoff %
38.7
30
hits
19
13
blocked shots
10
6
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
David RittichNYI3428.824
Brandon BussiCAR2826.929

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +4
NYI +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: CAR 4 · NYI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 36%, CAR 64% · Updated Oct 30, 2025

Expected margin
CAR by 1.1
Expected score
CAR 3.7 – 2.5 NYI
Expected total
6.2
IslandersThe matchupHurricanes
+180Our fair odds−180
2.5Expected goals3.7
−0.08Power rating+0.27
3.6Goals / game3.8
3.7Allowed / game3.1
30.4Shots / game33.0
48.4Faceoff %51.2
20.4Hits / game20.2
4−5Season record6−3
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · CAR chance
Our model fair35.8%64.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+18036%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−18064%————
SpreadCAR by 1.1
NYINew York Islanders+1.1our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Carolina Hurricanes by 1.1 expected
New York Islanders by 7 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 6%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 6%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 20%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 18%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 13%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 18%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 11%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 4%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: 1%Carolina Hurricanes by 7 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more47%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more34%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more14%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIDavid Rittich G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 3.01 GAAstarted
CARBrandon Bussi G · last 3 starts: .911 save %, 2.33 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·CAR
Oct 28, 2025 at BOS
last game
Oct 28, 2025 vs VGK
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
NYI·CAR
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
3.6
goals / game
3.8
3.7
goals allowed / game
3.1
4−5
season record
6−3
3−2
home record
2−1
1−3
away record
4−2
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
30.4
shots / game
33.0
48.4
faceoff %
51.2
20.4
hits / game
20.2
16.0
blocked shots / game
14.0
3.9
takeaways / game
4.4
14.2
giveaways / game
16.6

Rating Trend

NYI · CAR · 17 days
New York IslandersCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CAR 7−3
Mar 30, 2025at CARCAR 6 − 4
Jan 25, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 2 OT
Dec 17, 2024at CARCAR 4 − 0
Dec 7, 2024at NYINYI 4 − 3
Apr 30, 2024at CARCAR 6 − 3post
Apr 27, 2024at NYINYI 3 − 2 OTpost
Apr 25, 2024at NYICAR 3 − 2post
Apr 22, 2024at CARCAR 5 − 3post
Apr 20, 2024at CARCAR 3 − 1post
Mar 19, 2024at NYICAR 4 − 1

NYI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 28, 2025at BOS2 − 5L
Oct 25, 2025at PHI3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025vs DET7 − 2W
Oct 21, 2025vs SJ4 − 3W
Oct 18, 2025at OTT5 − 4W
Oct 16, 2025vs EDM4 − 2W
Oct 13, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L
Oct 11, 2025vs WSH2 − 4L
Oct 9, 2025at PIT3 − 4L
Apr 17, 2025at CBJ1 − 6L

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Oct 28, 2025vs VGK3 − 6L
Oct 25, 2025at DAL2 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025at COL5 − 4W
Oct 20, 2025at VGK1 − 4L
Oct 18, 2025at LA4 − 3W
Oct 16, 2025at ANA4 − 1W
Oct 14, 2025at SJ5 − 1W
Oct 11, 2025vs PHI4 − 3W
Oct 9, 2025vs NJ6 − 3W
May 28, 2025vs FLA3 − 5L