bayesRatings

Avalanche at Canucks

NHL · Sunday, Nov 9 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final COL 5 – VAN 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
COL20215
VAN11204
Team box
COL·VAN
32
shots
33
2 of 3
power play
1 of 5
40.9
faceoff %
59.1
18
hits
10
13
blocked shots
18
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL3329.879
Kevin LankinenVAN3227.844

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
COL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: VAN 0 · COL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 53%, VAN 47% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
COL 3.2 – 2.8 VAN
Expected total
6.0
AvalancheThe matchupCanucks
−111Our fair odds+111
3.2Expected goals2.8
+0.32Power rating−0.05
3.9Goals / game2.9
2.5Allowed / game3.3
34.1Shots / game26.9
50.3Faceoff %45.4
17.6Hits / game22.7
9−6Season record8−8
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · VAN chance
Our model fair52.5%47.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−11153%————
VANVancouver Canucks+11147%————
Spreadabout even
COLColorado Avalanche−0.4our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 3%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 7%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 14%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 17%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 25%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%
← COL wins byVAN wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more36%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more25%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .861 save %, 3.22 GAAstarted
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .872 save %, 3.79 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·VAN
Nov 8, 2025 at EDM
last game
Nov 8, 2025 vs CBJ
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
COL·VAN
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.9
goals / game
2.9
2.5
goals allowed / game
3.3
9−6
season record
8−8
4−2
home record
3−4
5−4
away record
5−4
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
34.1
shots / game
26.9
50.3
faceoff %
45.4
17.6
hits / game
22.7
14.5
blocked shots / game
16.3
4.9
takeaways / game
4.1
16.5
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

COL · VAN · 27 days
Colorado AvalancheVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 6−4
Apr 10, 2025at COLVAN 4 − 1
Feb 4, 2025at VANVAN 3 − 0
Dec 16, 2024at VANVAN 3 − 1
Mar 13, 2024at VANCOL 4 − 3 OT
Feb 20, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 1
Nov 22, 2023at COLCOL 5 − 2
Jan 20, 2023at VANCOL 4 − 1
Jan 5, 2023at VANVAN 4 − 2
Nov 23, 2022at COLVAN 4 − 3
Mar 23, 2022at COLVAN 3 − 1

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Nov 8, 2025at EDM9 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Nov 1, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Oct 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025vs NJ8 − 4W
Oct 26, 2025at NJ3 − 4L
Oct 25, 2025at BOS2 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025vs CAR4 − 5L
Oct 21, 2025at UTAH3 − 4L
Oct 18, 2025vs BOS4 − 1W

VAN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 8, 2025vs CBJ4 − 3W
Nov 5, 2025vs CHI2 − 5L
Nov 3, 2025at NSH5 − 4W
Nov 1, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025at STL4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025vs NYR0 − 2L
Oct 26, 2025vs EDM4 − 3W
Oct 25, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L
Oct 23, 2025at NSH1 − 2L
Oct 21, 2025at PIT1 − 5L