bayesRatings

Lightning at Avalanche

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 4 · 8:30 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final TB 2 – COL 3
← NHL / Nov 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TB1012
COL1203
Team box
TB·COL
24
shots
33
0 of 3
power play
1 of 4
49.2
faceoff %
50.8
23
hits
17
14
blocked shots
15
13
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Victor OlofssonCOL202
Brayden PointTB104
Ross ColtonCOL103
Nikita KucherovTB103
Nathan MacKinnonCOL016
Martin NecasCOL013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Andrei VasilevskiyTB3330.909
Scott WedgewoodCOL2422.917

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
TB +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 2 · TB 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 40%, COL 60% · Updated Nov 4, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 0.7
Expected score
COL 3.6 – 2.9 TB
Expected total
6.5
LightningThe matchupAvalanche
+150Our fair odds−150
2.9Expected goals3.6
+0.18Power rating+0.32
2.9Goals / game3.6
2.8Allowed / game2.7
26.9Shots / game34.2
44.8Faceoff %50.7
19.9Hits / game18.5
6−6Season record7−6
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · COL chance
Our model fair40.0%60.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning+15040%————
COLColorado Avalanche−15060%————
SpreadCOL by 0.7
TBTampa Bay Lightning+0.7our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 0.7 expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 4%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 8%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 7%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 20%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 20%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 9%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 3%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: <1%
← TB wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more40%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more28%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .922 save %, 1.77 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .882 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·COL
Nov 2, 2025 at UTAH
last game
Nov 1, 2025 at SJ
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
TB·COL
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
2.9
goals / game
3.6
2.8
goals allowed / game
2.7
6−6
season record
7−6
3−3
home record
3−2
3−3
away record
4−4
W5
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
26.9
shots / game
34.2
44.8
faceoff %
50.7
19.9
hits / game
18.5
14.5
blocked shots / game
14.5
3.9
takeaways / game
4.8
16.8
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

TB · COL · 22 days
Tampa Bay LightningColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Nov 25, 2024at TBTB 8 − 2
Oct 30, 2024at COLTB 5 − 2
Feb 15, 2024at TBTB 6 − 3
Nov 27, 2023at COLCOL 4 − 1
Feb 14, 2023at COLTB 4 − 3 SO
Feb 9, 2023at TBTB 5 − 0
Jun 26, 2022at TBCOL 2 − 1post
Jun 24, 2022at COLTB 3 − 2post
Jun 22, 2022at TBCOL 3 − 2 OTpost
Jun 20, 2022at TBTB 6 − 2post

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Nov 2, 2025at UTAH4 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025vs DAL2 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at NSH5 − 2W
Oct 26, 2025vs VGK2 − 1W
Oct 25, 2025vs ANA4 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025vs CHI2 − 3L
Oct 18, 2025at CBJ2 − 3L
Oct 17, 2025at DET1 − 2L
Oct 14, 2025at WSH2 − 3L
Oct 13, 2025at BOS4 − 3W

COL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 1, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Oct 31, 2025at VGK4 − 2W
Oct 28, 2025vs NJ8 − 4W
Oct 26, 2025at NJ3 − 4L
Oct 25, 2025at BOS2 − 3L
Oct 23, 2025vs CAR4 − 5L
Oct 21, 2025at UTAH3 − 4L
Oct 18, 2025vs BOS4 − 1W
Oct 16, 2025at CBJ4 − 1W
Oct 13, 2025at BUF3 − 1W