bayesRatings

Ducks at Lightning

NHL · Saturday, Oct 25 · 4:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final ANA 3 – TB 4
← NHL / Oct 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA0123
TB1214
Team box
ANA·TB
40
shots
33
0 of 2
power play
1 of 6
47.9
faceoff %
52.1
14
hits
21
17
blocked shots
15
19
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Anthony CirelliTB213
Jake GuentzelTB206
Troy TerryANA114
Nikita KucherovTB026
Victor HedmanTB023
Brandon HagelTB020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA3329.879
Jonas JohanssonTB4037.925

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 2 · ANA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 33%, TB 67% · Updated Oct 25, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 1.4
Expected score
TB 3.9 – 2.5 ANA
Expected total
6.4
DucksThe matchupLightning
+202Our fair odds−202
2.5Expected goals3.9
−0.31Power rating+0.15
3.7Goals / game2.6
3.6Allowed / game3.4
32.4Shots / game24.4
48.3Faceoff %44.8
24.9Hits / game20.9
4−3Season record1−6
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · TB chance
Our model fair33.1%66.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+20233%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−20267%————
SpreadTB by 1.4
ANAAnaheim Ducks+1.4our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.4 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 5%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 20%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 16%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 19%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 5%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%
← ANA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more52%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more39%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal36%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.560%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 2.82 GAAstarted
TBJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 3.18 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·TB
Oct 23, 2025 at BOS
last game
Oct 23, 2025 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
ANA·TB
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
3.7
goals / game
2.6
3.6
goals allowed / game
3.4
4−3
season record
1−6
1−1
home record
0−3
3−2
away record
1−3
W2
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
2−8
32.4
shots / game
24.4
48.3
faceoff %
44.8
24.9
hits / game
20.9
13.0
blocked shots / game
14.4
3.3
takeaways / game
4.1
15.3
giveaways / game
17.1

Rating Trend

ANA · TB · 12 days
Anaheim DucksTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TB 6−2
Jan 16, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3 SO
Jan 5, 2025at ANAANA 4 − 1
Mar 24, 2024at ANATB 3 − 2 OT
Jan 13, 2024at TBTB 5 − 1
Feb 21, 2023at TBTB 6 − 1
Oct 26, 2022at ANATB 4 − 2
Apr 14, 2022at TBTB 4 − 3 OT
Jan 21, 2022at ANAANA 5 − 1

ANA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 23, 2025at BOS7 − 5W
Oct 21, 2025at NSH5 − 2W
Oct 19, 2025at CHI1 − 2L
Oct 16, 2025vs CAR1 − 4L
Oct 14, 2025vs PIT4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025at SJ7 − 6W
Oct 9, 2025at SEA1 − 3L
Apr 16, 2025at WPG1 − 2L
Apr 15, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Apr 13, 2025vs COL2 − 4L

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Oct 23, 2025vs CHI2 − 3L
Oct 18, 2025at CBJ2 − 3L
Oct 17, 2025at DET1 − 2L
Oct 14, 2025at WSH2 − 3L
Oct 13, 2025at BOS4 − 3W
Oct 11, 2025vs NJ3 − 5L
Oct 9, 2025vs OTT4 − 5L
Apr 30, 2025vs FLA3 − 6L
Apr 28, 2025at FLA2 − 4L
Apr 26, 2025at FLA5 − 1W